Having The Winds of Winter published before season 6 of Thrones airs next spring “has been important to me all along,” says the best-selling New Mexico author. “I wish it was out now. Maybe I’m being overly optimistic about how quickly I can finish. But I canceled two convention appearances, I’m turning down a lot more interviews—anything I can do to clear my decks and get this done.”
Looking back on this moment from nearly six years ago, the A Song of Ice and Fire fandom is, at best, confused, at worst, still upset by George RR Martin’s optimism. If Winds was so close at hand back then, what in the world happened? Why was George optimistic then? One answer - a true one, even - is that George has always been over-optimistic about his progress for multiple. But why Is George always so optimistic? When normal people have these types of questions, they probably shrug their shoulders and go on to enjoy happy lives. Unfortunately for me (and you), I start researching. My research led me back to the split between A Feast for Crows and A Dance with Dragons in 2005, and it’s in that split that we start to see the origins of George's optimism about when he will finish and deliver a book. And that's what we're going to focus on today in this first of a two-part series on George's optimism about publishing ADWD and why the split between AFFC/ADWD provoked George's dreaded optimism.
GRRM’s Style of Writing
In March 2012, George RR Martin sat for an interview and panel discussion with Adam Whitehead (Werthead). In a conversation that spanned many topics, George talked about his writing process, and how that led him to talk about the decision to split A Feast for Crows and A Dance with Dragons:
“I don't write these characters in the order in which you read them. I tend to stick with one character. So, I may write five or six Daenerys stories and then switch gears and write five or six Tyrion chapters. So as a result I can wind up with thousands of pages of manuscripts in which I haven't yet written anything about Bran -- which was actually the case in that case with A Feast for Crows when I did do the split.” - GRRM, Eastercon Interview 2012
That George had fully-written or mostly-written stories for some characters but not for others led to George making the decision to split A Feast for Crows and A Dance with Dragons. But it’s too simplistic to assume that George simply published his completed character arcs and chapters and punted the incomplete chapters/character arcs to A Dance with Dragons. In fact, when George RR Martin conducted the post-mortem for A Feast for Crows, he stated:
As of this writing, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS consists of some twenty-two finished chapters totaling 542 manuscript pages, plus another 100 to 150 pages of partial chapters, early drafts, scenes, and fragments. Some of that material will need to be revised, and of course much more remains to be written. - GRRM, Website Update (Archive Version), 2005
All of those completed chapters and pages were then the springboard for A Dance with Dragons which George optimistically predicted would be out in 2006. Whoops. But it’s an understandable whoopsie. Having a 500+ page/22 completed chapter headstart with an additional 100+ pages already underway gave George the optimism that he could knock out ADWD in a year. In 2011, GRRM talked about what he thought he had to accomplish to get ADWD out by 2006:
I figured I only had another 400 odd pages to go to have another book of equal length, which was likely what prompted me to say the next book would be along in a year. - GRRM, notablog, “Talking About the Dance”, 5/19/2011
Why drag all of this well-trod history up now in a post ostensibly about The Winds of Winter? In part, this gets us into GRRM’s frame of mind when he makes these predictions for when his next book will be out. It’s almost a math equation in George’s brain: “I’ve completed x-number of pages and chapters for the next book, and I know that the next book will be y-length. Thus, I only have to finish z-number of pages which I can do in ONE YEAR.” But there’s another crucial component. It wasn’t simply that George had a batch of scattershot chapters in the can when he decided on the split. It was rather that he had completed character arcs.
The Incomplete Arcs (Leftover Chapters from the Split)
Before we do the completed arcs, let's talk about the incomplete arcs. George RR Martin believed that he had a large head-start when tackling ADWD. But it was an even larger head-start than popularly-believed. As GRRM talked about above, he thought he was over halfway done ADWD when he did the Feast/Dance split. Speaking of being halfway done, let's talk about the leftover material that was George's springboard for ADWD. So, we know that it was 22 chapters, 542 pages. Do we have any idea of the POVs that George had done by 2005? We do! At the 2013 Deeper Than Swords event at Texas A&M University, a placard appeared with showed a partial manuscript for A Feast for Crows by October 2003. George integrated the split in 2005; so, this manuscript partial shows an early combined order, and here we can see the ADWD chapters George had complete by 2003. They are:
Jon I-II
Daenerys I-III
Tyrion I-II
So, that's 7 of the 22 chapters. What about the rest? For purposes of keeping this already-lengthy essay short, I'll simply bullet point the additional ones we know George had done by 2005 and are outside the purview of this essay:
TWOW, Sansa I (Alayne): a likely pre-Five Year Gap chapter that George wrote given that he mentioned writing about Harry the Heir in 2001 before he abandoned the Five Year Gap. However, GRRM stated he finished a Sansa chapter in 2008 which may be Alayne I, a different Sansa chapter altogether or a pre-abandonment of the Five-Year Gap Sansa chapter he rewrote.
TWOW, Arya I (Mercy): Another pre-Five Year Gap which George confirmed to have written back in 2001. However, George later talked about finishing an Arya chapter in 2008. That may be a reworked version of Mercy or "The Blind Girl" or "The Ugly Little Girl."
So, that brings us up to 13 of the 22 additional completed chapters. What about the remaining 8 chapters?
The Completed Arcs (Tyrion and Daenerys)
At long last, we turn to the meat of this analysis: the completed arcs George had leftover from splitting Feast and Dance in 2005. As we saw above, George had significant work done on several POV chapters by 2005, but he still needed to finish their stories. This was not the case for other POVs though. In fact, George RR Martin had completed the POV arcs for both Tyrion Lannister and Daenerys Targaryen by 2005. Or so he thought. Let's look at a few things that George said in the years leading up to the split. In 2003, GRRM talked about his progress on A Feast for Crows, saying:
When asked about the progress of his writing he said AFFC is not yet finished and it is taking a long time. He has Dany pretty much done and most of the Lannister chapters. - So Spake Martin, 2/14/2003
Right here, George is saying that he's completed Dany's chapters. That said, this particular So Spake Martin was conducted at BosKone from February 2003, and it appears to be at odds with the manuscript partial that George sent to his publishers in October 2003 which indicated only three Dany chapters complete. As for the mismatch on the con report and the manuscript partial: one possibility is that George thought that Dany's arc would be three chapters. That's unlikely. What is more likely is that GRRM sent his polished chapters forward to his publishers and retained chapters he still considered to be in draft form to polish them. Still, we can't be completely sure how many Dany chapters were complete. However, by May 2005 (just before he conducted the split), George told fans at a Chicago Convention:
Dany has more chapters than anyone. He also said that Dany's love life is going to become "extremely complex" - GRRM, So Spake Martin, 2005
There's complexity beyond Dany's love-life though. The published version of AFFC has ten Cersei chapters while the published version of ADWD has ten Daenerys chapters. Yet just a few weeks short of finishing AFFC, Dany had more chapters than Cersei. Speculation on my part, but I think here George had not finished Cersei's arc for AFFC, or he decided to split longer Cersei chapters into smaller ones -- something he's talked about recently as always being part of his writing process. Meanwhile, there’s Tyrion. In that same chat with Adam Whitehead we referenced earlier, George talked about where he was with Tyrion:
"I had Tyrion across the Narrow Sea and down the river as far as Volantis. I think I and I was going to break him there in Volantis and continue on to the next book." - GRRM, Eastercon Interview 2012
The original imagining then was that George would write four Tyrion chapters which got Tyrion to Volantis, and then he’d break Tyrion off on a cliffhanger. The implication here is that George planned to end Tyrion’s arc in ADWD as a cliffhanger with his abduction by Jorah and then pick up with Tyrion’s story when he arrived in Meereen for The Winds of Winter. Here's the point: George had completed or had nearly-completed two major arcs when he split AFFC and ADWD: Dany and Tyrion's stories. These were two of the major POV character arcs in ADWD, and he had a headstart on his other major POV arc for the book: Jon Snow. That's what caused him optimism for completing ADWD within a year. He all but said as much in his post-mortem of ADWD in 2011:
The earliest partial in my files dates from January 2006. At that point I had 542 finished pages. Now, recall, it was June 2005 when I divided A FEAST FOR CROWS into two parallel books, and wrote my infamous (and, in retrospect, ill-considered) afterword "Meanwhile, Back at the Wall..." A FEAST FOR CROWS, as delivered, was 1063 pages in manuscript. At the time of the split, looking at all the Tyrion and Daenerys material that I'd removed, I figured I only had another 400 odd pages to go to have another book of equal length, which was likely what prompted me to say the next book would be along in a year. Famous last words, those. Never again. - GRRM, notablog, “Talking About the Dance”, 5/19/2011
So, I speculate that the completed leftover chapters from the split were:
Asha (1 chapter)
Arya (1 chapter)*
Sansa (1 chapter)*
Davos (2 chapters)
Tyrion (4 chapters)
Jon (5 chapters)
Daenerys (8-9 chapters)
*These chapters may not have been complete by 2005 All George had to do was finish Jon's story, write Bran, Theon and Quentyn's arcs (which he hadn't started (or probably hadn't started in the case of Theon) when he split the books) and finish smaller isolated arcs that he had or probably had already started (Theon, Davos and Asha). So, what went wrong?
Many Issues Arose (The Unbegun and Incomplete Arcs)
George RR Martin is a gardener as a writer: meaning that he develops the story organically as he goes rather than follow a strict outline. He typically knows where the story is headed and knows major plot points and character endstates, but the journey to get to those plot points and character endstates is one that he navigates along the way. This allows for a lot of flexibility to finesse the manuscript as he writes. For an example of what this means, take a look at George's 1993 pitch letter for ASOIAF and compare it to the plot points that came about in published form. That said, George's gardening style when writing ADWD led to a lot of problems. In early 2006, GRRM got back to work on ADWD after his AFFC tour, and he began immediately rewriting the five Jon Snow chapters he completed before the split. Here's him talking about it at the time:
For the last week or so I have been back at the Wall with Jon Snow and the men of the Night's Watch. Jon, I think, will be one of the main beneficiaries of my splitting A FEAST FOR CROWS in two. I will have more room to deal with Jon and Stannis and the wildlings and the rest, which will allow me to flesh out their storylines more and bring them to a better resolution... but it's more than that. Although I had "completed" something on the order of five Jon chapters before deciding to divide the book, I was never really happy with them, and rereading them now has reinforced my feelings. They need to be much stronger, and I believe I see how to do that now.
That rewriting of Jon's five chapters took two months to complete, and George hadn't made forward progress to finishing Jon's arc. In fact, finishing Jon Snow's ADWD arc would end up taking the full compliment of time George took to finish ADWD with Jon's final ADWD chapter (Jon XIII) being one of the final chapters George delivered to his publishers. Meanwhile, George hadn't started Bran, Quentyn and probably Theon's chapters, but he began to tackle them in the years after splitting the books. However, these characters proved very difficult to write. Bran, in particular, was always a trouble-spot for George, and after he completed a Bran chapter in 2008, he reported it taking "six years" to complete. As for the mismatch from when George said he hadn't started Bran's chapters before he split the book and him taking six years to finish a certain Bran chapter (recalling this is 2008, that would mean 2002), I don't know. Probably something like George was thinking through the difficulties of writing this Bran chapter back in 2002 but didn't put pen to paper until after the publication of AFFC. Meanwhile, GRRM was writing Quentyn Martell's "The Merchant Man" chapter in 2006, and he was thinking a lot about Jon, Dany and "Q" (Quentyn) in 2007.. Later in 2009, George hinted at writing a Quentyn chapter ("Today it was in service of... ah, no, you're not supposed to know about that POV character yet. (Though I have hinted)" - That's Quentyn). On that note of Quentyn, we turn back to Tyrion and the Meereenese Knot.
Expanding Tyrion's Story
When talking about the Tyrion chapters he completed when he split the book, George told fans in 2005 that:
Tyrion's story arc required 4 chapters but he thinks with another 3 chapters he can have a far more satisfying story. In other words, he is just continuing the existing story. - GRRM, So Spake Martin, May 2005
So, George ended up taking his four Tyrion chapters that he wrote before the split and expanding them out to seven chapters. However, if you take a quick peek at your copy of ADWD, you'll notice that Tyrion has twelve chapters in ADWD. And it gets even more complicated from there. This gets very in the weeds, but it turned out not to be seven chapters. It was plus or minus six chapters. In October 2007, GRRM stated that he ended up removing an entire Tyrion chapter -- one that would feature the character known as "The Shrouded Lord." This chapter, which was likely Tyrion's sixth chapter was then completely rewritten to the published form of ADWD, Tyrion VI which opens with Tyrion having a dream of the Shrouded Lord -- likely a fragment from the abandoned Tyrion chapter that George reworked to be his chapter open. Meanwhile, another one of those Tyrion chapters that George wrote ended up being rewritten to an entirely new POV in 2007:
Finished a Tyrion chapter yesterday, one I’ve been struggling with for months. Made a major change to the end of the chapter, one I think works much better than what I had before. Also tackled another Tyrion chapter that had been giving me trouble, mainly by ripping Tyrion out of the scene entirely and rewriting the whole damn thing from another point of view. Not quite done with that one yet, but I think it will work better as well. However, I am keeping the old Tyrion POV version of the same events on my computer, just in case I change my mind later and decide to go back. - GRRM, So Spake Martin, 12/27/2007
As for the identity of other POV George ended up rewriting it for, it's almost certainly Jon Connington's "The Lost Lord" chapter. Recall from that 2012 interview that George only wanted to take Tyrion as far as Volantis before ending his arc on a cliffhanger before he split AFFC/ADWD. And then recall that in 2005, George said the split in the books allowed him to write Tyrion's story in seven chapters. I think George was staying on his idea of ending Tyrion's story in a cliffhanger even by 2007, but he decided to introduce a new POV to write a better story: Jon Connington. So, now George was satisfied. He wrote Tyrion's story up to the point where he wanted to take it, and though there had been bends to get there, he was done in 2007, right? lol, no. George began gardening again, and he abandoned his idea to end Tyrion on a cliffhanger. Instead, GRRM decided to chart Tyrion's journey to Meereen in detail, introducing Penny and then showing us the Yunkish side of the Siege of Meereen through Tyrion's POV. Why? The Meereenese Knot. So far in this essay, we've avoided the Meereenese Knot and identified issues that arose in ADWD's publication outside of the knot. But per George, the thing that really slowed down George's progress was the Meereenese Knot. What is the knot? Simply: a writing problem of supporting characters (POV and non-POV characters) that were making their way to Meereen and how to time their arrival to Meereen. Here's George talking about it in 2012:
Now I can explain things. It was a confluence of many, many factors: lets start with the offer from Xaro to give Dany ships, the refusal of which then leads to Qarth's declaration of war. Then there's the marriage of Daenerys to pacify the city. Then there's the arrival of the Yunkish army at the gates of Meereen, there's the order of arrival of various people going her way (Tyrion, Quentyn, Victarion, Aegon, Marwyn, etc.), and then there's Daario, this dangerous sellsword and the question of whether Dany really wants him or not, there's the plague, there's Drogon's return to Meereen... All of these things were balls I had thrown up into the air, and they're all linked and chronologically entwined. The return of Drogon to the city was something I explored as happening at different times. For example, I wrote three different versions of Quentyn's arrival at Meereen: one where he arrived long before Dany's marriage, one where he arrived much later, and one where he arrived just the day before the marriage (which is how it ended up being in the novel). And I had to write all three versions to be able to compare and see how these different arrival points affected the stories of the other characters. Including the story of a character who actually hasn't arrived yet.
I'm not going to break down the full quote above. What I will say is that one of the reasons - perhaps the main reason - is that George likely continued Tyrion's story was because he decided to have eyes-on in Meereen. But wait. Quentyn Martell was going to Meereen. Why not have him be the POV for all Meereenese events? Because George was always planning for Quentyn to die (Men die on grand adventures), and in fact, died. Very sad. Meanwhile, let's briefly (thank god) talk about Victarion Greyjoy. He was one of the POV characters George mentioned in the quote above. Was George planning for him to be the POV for the Meereen? Not originally, no. Before the split, I think George was not planning for any Victarion chapters in ADWD. He probably originally didn't plan for Quentyn to be a POV character. And given that Tyrion was going to be left on a Volantene Cliffhanger, I think we can see the outlines of one version of ADWD: that Quentyn, Victarion and Tyrion would all arrive in Meereen as three twists in the story. Quentyn would arrive with the Dornish offer, Victarion would arrive with the fleet at the Battle of Fire, and Tyrion would arrive with Jorah Mormont and be our POV for Meereen as soon as Dany left. However, George decided in 2010 that he wanted to chart Victarion's journey to Meereen, indicating that he was writing Victarion's "The Iron Suitor" chapter in February 2010. Why did George expand Victarion's story and trace his journey? Probably because he was writing Aeron Damphair's "The Forsaken" chapter at the same time and thought that the best way to tackle the specter of Euron Greyjoy was to have his influence be felt in both Victarion and Aeron's chapters. (George later cut Aeron to TWOW). But there were problems with Tyrion as the main POV for Meereen. He didn't know the language. He wasn't involved in the main action of the events that preceded events from ADWD. Tyrion worked better as a newly-arrived outsider looking in on the action and observing it from that perspective of an outsider. So instead of scrapping all the Tyrion chapters George wrote with him as the primary post-Dany POV, he ended up refashioning them and keeping them, tellingly talking about rewriting a Tyrion POV chapter in mid-2010 after he figured out the solution to the Meereenese Knot: introducing Ser Barristan Selmy as a POV character (Something we won't cover today). Overshadowing all of this was that George knew that Daenerys would fly away with Drogon and leave Meereen behind.
Conclusion: Daenerys the (Relatively) Unchanged
There's a notable absence in all the work George did with writing the Meereenese Knot: Daenerys of House Targaryen. The knot revolved around her, yet we really don't hear much about George writing her chapters after he split AFFC/ADWD. Now, there are some spots where George did talk about writing Dany chapters. In early 2008 for instance, he's writing Dany and "making progress on Dany." Thereafter, we hear nothing about George working on Dany chapters. Why? Mostly, it's because George didn't make the drastic changes he was making with other POV characters. It doesn't seem he rewrote her arc in the same fashion as occurred with Tyrion and Jon's chapters. He wasn't tearing out his hair with her chapters the same way he did with the chapters from the Meereenese Knot. Now, that's not to say some rewriting and restructuring didn't occur with Dany. We know that it did. For instance, an early version of Dany's first ADWD chapter ended with the shepherd declaring that "the green one did it" in reference to the Viserion eating his daughter Hazzea instead of Drogon. But there were other, more major changes. One such change was Drogon's return and Daznak's Pit. Per elio_garcia: before the split, the scene was set originally in Dany's third chapter, but then the old Westeros.org archive recounted this as Dany's fourth chapter. But it ended up as Dany's ninth chapter. George talked specifically about this chaptescene getting pushed back and rewritten over and over again in 2011 saying:
There's a Dany scene in the book which is actually one of the oldest chapters in the book that goes back almost ten years now. When I was contemplating the five year gap [Martin laughs here, with some chagrin], that chapter was supposed to be the first Daenerys chapter in the book. Then it became the second chapter, and then the third chapter, and it kept getting pushed back as I inserted more things into it. I've rewritten that chapter so much that it ended in many different ways. - GRRM, So Spake Martin, 7/11/2011
So, that chapter changed a lot in the years since the early aughts. Meanwhile, we talked about this before, but Quentyn's arrival in Meereen was one of those narrative things that gave George a headache. But to try to solve one angle of the Meereenese Knot, George ended up writing three versions of Quentyn's arrival in Meereen. Once long before Dany's marriage to Hizdahr, once the day before and once long after. I've written before about how the "long after" arrival of Quentyn was rewritten from a Quentyn chapter to be a Barristan chapter, but I think there's a strong possibility that at one time, Quentyn's arrival in Meereen was from his own POV, but George later rewrote that chapter to be from Dany's POV -- something he alluded to in 2007:
And even then I did not go straight to sleep, but tossed and turned for a long while, my mind full of Dany and Jon and Q (Ed note: Quentyn Martell) and so forth and so on. It was the most productive day I’ve had in months, at least where DANCE is concerned
Writing Dany was substantially hard for George, and as you can see above, he had to do a lot of hard writing, rewriting and restructuring to create her arc in ADWD. And yet, the difficulty paled in comparison to everyone else, and George seemed to have been done on Daenerys before anyone else. There's no mention of George working on Dany after 2008. Not to say that he wasn't, but he mentions writing or alluding to writing nearly every other POV on his notablog in the years leading up to ADWD's publication. All of that means that compared to her POV peers, Dany was the most relatively unchanged POV character, that her arc was not scratched, fully revamped/revised. And this is something that we're going to return to when we pick up the next part on George's optimism on TWOW in next time, on Bfished.
This day is a minefield. So many players in the men’s draw are lined up against very stylistically similar opponents, and while a ton of underdogs have a chance at winning, if both play their peak there are unlikely to be a lot of upsets today. Since tennis is tennis, this likely means there will be even more upsets as many athletes feel the pressure to win a safe one, but have to easy way to do so. Still time btw to join the Picking Competiton at AO Competition by the way. Free to join and some smol but nice cash prizes. They'll be running these for a lot of tournaments this year so feel free to check it out anytime. Working on the Women's now; I'll post the early matches first so they're up by gametime and add the rest as I finish them. 🐢 Djokovic Tiafoe : Looking at the first round scores this is going to be a great matchup. So just keeeeep looking at the scores. It’s tough to write anything about Novak Djokovic other than “he’s too good.” The guy has the personality of an almond, but he simply has worked his way to the top and despite the hard work of other younger players on tour, time spent winning makes good decisions and efficient tactics more of a muscle memory thing than a conscious decision thing, so the more intense the match gets the better he plays. Tiafoe was almost bad enough to lose the first set to Travaglia, but eventually he managed to get the job done as Travaglia’s legs got more and more fatigued. I’m impressed he was even able to take the court after his contest with Sinner the night before, and it’s certainly not Tiafoe’s fault that his opponent was fatigued, so it was a well-deserved win. Tiafoe’s best chance at doing damage to Djokovic is to serve the lights out, and Djokovic covers the outwide serve (Tiafoe’s best from the ad side) so well that this is kinda an empty pursuit. Djokovic in 3. Opelka Fritz : Opelka got the job done fairly easily in the first round, but Yen Hsun-Lu is not really a tour level player anymore. Fritz has frosted tips, and even though he’s a decade late, it’s a pretty good look. I am still endeavoring to say 3 positive things about Taylor Fritz in every post, and that counts as 2. The third is that he is likely to win this match. Fritz has won most of their previous meetings, and even though he plays tennis like he’s more sleepy than hungry to win, he has an interesting combination of skills that make him a favorite. His serve doesn’t win him matches outright, but it’s a very easy motion and is good enough to get a lot of easy returns against Opelka. His offense during the rallies is mostly forehand offerings that aren’t clean winners, but these are good enough to get up high on Opelka can allow him to go for things he shouldn’t. Fritz’s backhand only goes one direction and is not offensive enough to really get him into good positions in the rally, but actually the best way to approach Opelka’s backhand is just to keep pushing the ball there and let him create his own offense. These things considered, Fritz should have a pretty good chance to hold serve most of the time, and shouldn’t have to press in rallies when he is able to return Opelka’s serve. That is the x-factor ultimately. Opelka’s serve is sometimes inconsistent but is one of the biggest on tour, and that coupled with Fritz’s cursed ability to be Taylor Fritz means that this could easily be decided in tiebreakers which tend to favor big servers. Fritz was abysmal last week against Chardy, and moderately decent against Ramos. Ramos is an excellent warmup though for your baseline game, and Fritz had to do a lot of good work and should be sharp for this one. Fritz in 4. Wawrinka Fucsovics : Wawrinka looked businesslike in round one, which is refreshing. Pedro Sousa is the type of player who loses quickly though, and Stan’s round two opponent is the type who doesn’t do anything quickly. Marton Fucsovics brushes his teeth for 45 minutes in the morning while riding an exercise bike that plays Japanese lessons. While this goes on, he does crunches. There are few players on tour who could endure the hot nonsense bouncy performance that Marc Polmans put on in the first round. It really looked as if Fucsovics would never turn the tide and Polmans played great offense from start to finish. For a guy like Fucsovics, his mobility seemed to make this match a problem as he was content to retrieve in many rallies and rather than draw errors like he often does, it resulted in allowing Polmans to work the point without pressure. The determining factor here will be Wawrinka errors. Fucsovics is a great defensive player with moderately effective offensive tools. He gets a bit slice-happy on his backhand but he keeps it low. His forehand doesn’t always have good length but against he keeps the ball low. His serve isn’t really about aces but about netting himself a return to work with. This means Wawrinka will have control of rallies, but needs to be patient in his approach to winning. The first shot is going to come back, and constructing the point will be essential. The backhands in the net and overcooked forehands will be a problem as it stretches on since he can lose confidence in both wings, but this is a guy with experience and a good record against Fucsovics (though the matches were close) so given Fucs’ struggles with Polmans, a fresh Wawrinka should eventually win here. Wawrinka in 5. Moutet Raonic : Moutet and Milman had a really good spirited war. There’s something so refreshing about a unique tennis player, and Moutet’s game is really entertaining. The inside out forehand slice that he hits down the line at times costs him points, but it’s fun! The reckless charges to the net get him having to dive for pass, but they’re fun! Up next is the consumer of all fun, Milos Raonic. Usually I provide a list of things that Raonic looks like : the child of a gecko and some chewing gum, an eagle crossed with a pencil, a tree that wandered off, etc. Today though I’m just gonna talk tennis. Mr Raonic mad extremely quick work of Coria, and since last year was his first full year without major injury problems, and since he played well in every event, he has to be a heavy favorite here. Moutet is crafty, and his movement will make him an even prospect in most rallies, but getting into those rallies is tough, and since Moutet gets moved behind the baseline so easily, Raonic’s prowess at net is likely to get a lot of simple reps early and often. This is a trickier matchup in a first round, or at a smaller event. Moutet actually beat him at Doha last year as if to prove that. The small caveat to take away from that match is that Moutet does have the ability to hold serve against Raonic if he keeps the big man moving, or if he’s able to get an early break. Raonic is good for at least 1 completely poor service game per 3 sets, so I think Moutet will earn a set, but earning multiple sets in this format will prove a lot of work. Raonic in 4. Ruusuvuori Martinez : This prince who was promised! Ruusuvuori has been coming in at absurd odds and losing for a while now. The final nail in the coffin was opening as a favorite against Monfils, and it looked for a while like these odds were slightly switched. In a similar contest to his match with Coric last week, Emil and Gael exchanged long rallies at the baseline and played a highly entertaining contest. This week though, Emil had a bit more belief and a bit more staying power. An emotional Monfils gave a press conference after the match that surprised me for a few reasons. He said he felt like he was living in a nightmare and couldn’t escape. From watching him, he’s never really been 100% committed to grinding out wins on the court. He’s never been 100% healthy. He’s always laughing and entertaining the crowd. To turn around now and seem to be struggling and to act as if these losses are now troubling or unexpected kinda shows me that although he’s more human and less entertainer than his persona gives off at times, that he also could use some changes in coaching. I feel bad that Monfils is struggling to win matches, but someone should tell him that he’s aging, he’s had a brilliant career, and millions of fans love to watch him play. At a certain point, it’s time to enjoy the sport and not really be as results oriented. A win against Monfils is a great moment for Ruusuvuori. Being an ambassador doesn’t mean you stop winning, but it means you grow and are afforded perspective that allows you to enjoy your time while you’re in it. Younger players pass you by, and I’m not trying to belittle him for not realizing it, but he really was extremely dominant in a lot of his wins in the past despite not playing the most dedicated brand of tennis. Players are going to scout you and solve the equation. The more times you lose the more it’s going to happen unfortunately because when margins are as small as they are on the tour, belief is often paramount. I also might suggest that he’s only really been winning consistently on tour indoors of late, but that’s enough Gael bashing for one year. He has a great game, and is one of the most fun guys on tour to watch. It seems unfair that he was one of the last to realize that he is extremely inconsistent and loses matches he should sometimes win. As a bonus, if we manage to get “competes all out” Monfils as a result, that’ll be awesome to watch. Pedro Martinez turned things around well against Nishioka, who continues to look to the sky for answers as matches that seem like they’re his get taken away. The problem for Nishioka was that he stopped dictating play. The same was Halys lost to Andujar, Nishioka lost to Martinez. Clay court players are not at their best on hardcourt, but only if the pace you bring to them is too much. Without a dominant serve, these guys get in the rally and they press small edges. They employ variety. They minimize errors. It’s a very easy thing to write off claycourters in hardcourt events but they notch upsets in every single one (except indoors). This next matchup is great. I don’t see a lot to separate these two, but luckily they’ve played twice already and Ruusuvuori has won both matchups. An extremely generic way to judge a contest, but I really don’t see a way for either player to win easy points here as good as they both are from the baseline, so I am inclined to lean slightly towards Ruus. Martinez will be fresher, and has improved a great deal since their previous meeting. Working against Ruusuvuori is the Disneyland factor, and winning a 5 setter against a high profile opponent can leave you kinda flat in the next round as your brain decides “i’m this good now!” but your opponent does not seem interested. I’d give the nod here to Ruusuvuori still, because Monfils is a really difficult opponent compared to Nishioka and the odds and expectations placed on Ruusuvuori are the type that indicate he will continue to progress. He has a slightly better serve as well. Ruusuvuori in 5. Bublik Lajovic : Bublik proved that angrily talking at the crowd in Russian is a highly effective tactic. He was in moderately sassy spirits against Aljaz Bedene, and it was almost like he knew the story going into the match was “Bedene will beat him because he will have lapses in concentration”. As a result, he really didn’t have any of those. Bublik executed his dropshots well, he served pretty good, and he really was solid from the baseline. The result was pressure on Bedene service games late in sets, and the errors came. Lajovic had the tough time he was expected to with Stakhovsky. Time and time again Stakhovsky plays a young player on the challenger tour who’s expected to win and yet Stakhovsky hangs onto his serve and squeaks out a win. Lajovic did the Lajovic thing though and kept the ball in the court until he could find errors. Where Bedene failed, Lajovic will succeed? This really is a great 2nd round of matchups, because Bublik is likely to beat Lajovic the same way he beat Bedene. The formula is simple, but it depends on Bublik errors and Bublik mobility struggling. He was fit, and solid his first round. It would be strange if he wasn’t here, and if Lajovic struggled to break the Stakhovsky serve, Bublik is going to have a good chance at this one. Bublik in 4. Mannarino Kecmanovic : Mannarino took a large chunk out of a lot of ppl’s bankrolls on Sunday. He was pretty error free from start to finish and he exposed Novak’s trouble on tour which is a lack of power. He’s a great player in a similar fashion to Fucsovics, but when he plays the better retrievers and better power hitters he struggles to win easy points. Mannarino has a way of looking so effortless while playing that it almost seems like his opponent needs to force offense. His problem is similarly power, and so it’s a good question if Kecmanovic has enough to clear this hurdle. Mannarino did beat him in their only previous meeting, but Kecmanovic has had some abysmal stretches on tour, and seems to be at his best right now. A straight sets beatdown of Majchrzak doesn’t mean a lot for 2nd round major implications, but he played a good match with Sinner last week and when he’s on his game, he’s a very promising baseliner. I don’t see a way to know what’s going to happen here. Mannarino is extremely difficult to hit through without a big serve or a huge forehand, and Kecmanovic is likely to give up errors but also take control of a lot of baseline rallies. When it’s over I’ll say “of course!” but going in this is a big question mark because of Kecmanovic’s recent surge in quality. I’m writing an article though, so hmm. Mannarino in 4 but the upset wouldn’t be too surprising here and Kecmanovic will likely give Zverev some trouble in the next round if he can get through this. Cressy Zverev : Nice work for Cressy reversing that results against Daniel. Zverev struggled early but then seemed inevitable to win the match. This has been the formula for him since last year’s US Open. Perhaps he doesn’t warm up, or perhaps it’s just difficult for tall people to come out of the gate moving quickly, but Zverev is very flat and awkward in the first set, and then gradually opens up a bit. Since he’s such a heavy favorite, a lot of his opponents come in redlining and as Zverev’s level slightly increases and his errors get cleaned up as a result, his opponents can suddenly struggle to find easy points. Add in the Zverev serve which is inconsistent but huge, and he’s a real tough out in an early round. Cressy is entertaining, and can make a set close since his serve and volleying is frustrating and Zverev’s brain is made of cabbage, but this is one way traffic. Zverev in 3. Thiem Koepfer : Kukushkin looked dangerous early, but Thiem kinda found his game as things went on, and his power is always there to draw on when things are tough. Koepfer is in the spot that he always is in. He’s a huge underdog, and doesn’t have much of a chance. As a result, I expect him to overperform. His offense is real, and he won’t make errors just because of the name on the other side of the net. Thiem will give you chances to play, and although he’s focused on winning, losing isn’t in his mind. This means that although there in an umpire, Thiem is not really keeping score. Losing a break going for the right shot doesn’t concern him, and similar to Federer he is not averse to going down a break and breaking right back. Being lefty is a decent advantage for Koepfer in dealing with Thiem’s backhand, but being short and dealing with the topspin on Thiem’s forehand will be a grind. I think Koepfer may steal a set, but this is probably optimism and fear of the sky falling. Thiem in 3-4. Kyrgios Humbert : Man I don’t like Nick Kyrgios. I keep trying to but it’s so easy to wind up analyzing him when nobody asked me to. Against Ferreira Silva he missed a slice and immediately turned to his box to blurt out “get your girlfriend out of my box”. He missed another shot later and immediately shrieked “don’t sit in my box next time!” He’s worse than a child, because nothing is ever his fault. He’s the type of person who throws personal attacks at you if you correct them about some info they had wrong, and it is extremely uncomfortable watching him suffer his own mind. I think it’s pretty clear to everyone that Nick should go live with some goats for a while. Free, happy, in the mountains. Clean air, goats as far as the eye can see. And when Nick issues a complaint, he’ll get interrupted by “BWEHHHHH”. Wait is Rublev there? Or do goats make the same sound. Did he plagiarize goats? Possible. Whatever. Kyrgios, despite being the person making a scene at a restaurant because the waiter made a mistake, is great at tennis. So great at tennis, that he pretty much improves with every match he plays in an event. That makes the next matchup very juicy. A mundane loss to Coric last week because he couldn’t hang in long rallies is likely to look similar to this contest, but playing a full tie with Ferreira Silva (a lefty who doesn’t really make errors) is the perfect warmup to play Humbert. Humbert looked great in his first round against Uchiyama. He served well, he looked very comfortable in rallies, and there was no wavering emotion or struggle. He has one of the brightest futures in tennis, as he has built an excellent foundation of court coverage and simple composed offense. Add in that sometimes he serves amazing, and he is set to beat Kyrgios at his own game. Humbert’s speed will negate most of the dropshots, Humbert’s forehand is excellent at hitting passes on the run, and Humbert backhand is a half a target, but Kyrgios doesn’t really wear down his opponents in that sense. His forehand can flatten out and be amazing, but it’s a big whippy at times and doesn’t get through the court. In this contest I see Nick scoring a lot of easy points on his serve, but in the past week or so he hasn’t really shown the ability to dominate his opponents service games. Whoever wins the tiebreakers here will win, but it’s Kyrgious who will have to get to them. Humbert in 4-5. What strikes me as funny is that no matter who Kyrgios plays from this point on, it’s really hard to pick him as the eventual winner. The rest of the tour is dependable and Nick is a question mark. I look forward to the new Nick who returns from the goats with newfound wisdom. Dimitrov Bolt : Grigorrrrrrrr. No blinking, no thinking. Dimitrov played well in his first round against Cilic, and served exceptionally well. It isn’t fair how they make the net higher than Cilic is used to, and he protested by hitting balls into the tape over and over. And over. It’s hard to watch a guy who’s so potentially dominant be 6 inches off on every shot, but it’s hard for the dude to gain confidence. Perhaps a trip to goat mountain? I wanted to take Dimitrov in the next round, but I also wanted to take Bolt. Alex Bolt gave Gombos a quick beatdown. Bolt has been a stalwart in the qualifying at the AO for a few years now but never really travelled on the tour. The points will start to add up if he does though, and he is a very sharp very capable offensive talent. Add in some exceptional speed, and you have a good recipe for an upset here. The question marks, and there are some in most of the 2nd round contests on the men’s side, are Dimitrov’s level. Last week he played a great match against Popyrin, and then lost in straight sets to a crafty lefty in Moutet. This week, he plays a great match against Cilic, and now plays a craftier lefty in better form? It’s a bit of storytelling to say the results have to line up, and also picking Bolt to get the job done here is tough because last week he had the chance to beat Wawrinka (who is somewhat of a similar level of challenge to Dimitrov and somewhat similar in shot selection), and blinked. A super blink. So his question marks are when he has the opportunity, what happens? It’ll be tough against this new error-free Dimitrov, and Bolt’s errors can come in bunches when they do. I think he steals a set or two, but it’ll be a whole new level from Bolt if he gets through this, so even though I am a fan of Alex, Dimitrov gets the slight nod. Dimitrov in 5. Vesely Carreño-Busta : Yay! Kimmer Coppejans was in pole position a number of times in that match, but Vesely is just a nonstop onslaught of heavy shots and offense. He really has found a form that was lacking for entire years on tour recently, and it’s refreshing. His next test though, is one I’m not sure he’ll get through. Vesely’s struggles have really come with errors in this stretch. Similar to Hurkacz, he’s swinging very free and against weaker opponents if he makes a good enough percentage, he wins. Against PCB, you need more than that. Pablo made pretty quick work of Kei, but not to be overlooked are how many times he got broken. This is pretty standard for Pablo, who seems about as likely to break his opponent when they’re serving for the set as he does to be broken himself in that spot. Overall though, he’s very consistent and doesn’t struggle against power, so this matchup is tough for Vesely to get through. The Vesely serve is likely better than PCB, and that’ll need to be on for him to keep this close. Ultimately, I think he won’t win more than one set. PCB in 4. Shapovalov Tomic : One last win for Shapo. Sinner’s performance on wobbly legs was insane against Travaglia, and to turn it around and almost beat Shapovalov the next day just adds to it. This was a match that I fully expected Sinner’s team to have him withdraw from. There will be plenty of Australian Opens in his future and risking injury playing overtired doesn’t seem sensible. Tell that to the kid who wobbled around between rallies while pretty much playing even with Shapovalov though. Jannik Sinner just doesn’t miss shots, and he has such a pure mind for tennis that he really injects depth, height, and angle at the same time. Denis did a good job to get through this, but was extremely lucky with the circumstances. I’m gonna say that was his last win against Sinner for a few years, and Sinner missed a backhand at 15 all in the 5th when he was looking like he’d break back that really was uncharacteristic. It was the first moment where I saw him kinda realize “oh i’m gonna win!” and that can lead to accelerating the swing too much. It’s similar to how hitting at a closing target can make u rush the ball there and end up missing. The way Shapovalov played was really impatient which served a good and bad purpose. One, he’s not a favorite in rallies against Sinner and Sinner was fatigued. On the other hand though, keeping rallies short made his error count really high and he had a lot of spots where he could have easily lost this match with an error instead of a winner or a double when he served a good second serve. Anyway, Tomic got a withdrawal which is gross. Shapovalov in 3. Duckworth Auger-Aliassime : James Duckworth plays hard. In the past he was given opportunities on tour and seemed like a pretty generic player, but I see the talent now. He has clearly been playing a ton of tennis and is hitting the ball very sharp. Dzumhur has kinda hovered off tour for a year now and it doesn’t look likely that he gets back on. He’s getting outworked and his attitude has never been the best on-court. FAA on the other hand has no attitude on-court. He’s pretty calm, composed, and seems incredible when he’s winning. Then come the problems though, and I think he’ll have some here. Duckworth is in no way shape or form a similar talent to FAA. He has to earn all his points the hard way, but he’s been pushing the pace and getting to net very frequently, and if anything is going to throw FAA off his game in this match, it’s that. FAA has timing issues here and there on his backhand, and when he’s struggling in the rally, his serve can go as well. Unfortunately, I can’t just predict a major implosion from a dude who’s played 2 good weeks of tennis already. I would never back FAA in this spot, but it would be the largest upset so far (sorry Mladenovic) if Duckworth pulled this off. He just doesn’t have the caliber of win in his pocket to say that he’ll do it. Still though, Duckworth is a funny name, and like you, I have always been moderately fond of ducks. FAA in 4 or a moderately momentous duck decision in 5. Gerasimov Karatsev : Gerasimov finally edged out Paire, but it wasn’t very convincing. The awkwardly decided serving duel always seemed like Paire would go down, but it took quite some time. Even in a slump, his serve and backhand combo are extremely dangerous. Karatsev looked great against Mager, who never really had a look at winning a set. Opening Karatsev as a -180 favorite is going to make a lot of people confused, as Gerasimov is a household name for those following the tour closely and Karatsev has really only played in a handful of tour events and lost early. These two played recently though, and Karatsev beat him convincingly. There is a question of fatigue for the big ol Gerasimov as well, having played a bunch of good matches last week and a long one with Paire a night ago. I’m inclined to believe that this is a very close matchup, and I’ll take the fresher legs. Breaking Gerasimov multiple times is a tough test, but Karatsev did that previously. Karatsev in 4. Muller Schwartzman : Muller went crazy on Londero. I tuned in after the first set and Muller was serving excellent, but also was leaning into backhand angles that didn’t really seem like they were there. The hope was he’d land somewhere in the draw where he could continue this run, but the young talent has drawn Diego “Cool Rappin Turtle” Schwartzman. Diego had a tougher time with Elias Ymer than his -5000 pricetag would indicate, and perhaps a good caveat to offer about tennis wagering is that no one on tour is -5000 against anyone. Everyone in the top 200 is an extremely talented player and given the opportunity can execute shots that are just plain effective. There is a level of offense possible with a tennis racquet where the opponent does not quite matter, and just because someone “should” win doesn’t mean that the work and focus necessary to complete the job isn’t taxing on them and difficult to produce. Djokovic/Nadal/Federer have been absurd outliers, but the rest of these guys can have bad days and a set of tennis can be a long grind but also is relatively short. The most frequent outcome in the sport is that the favorite wins but not as convincingly as oddsmakers project. This is because oddsmakers are not setting a prediction for the outcome (generally), but are estimating the $ investment that will come in on both sides of the event. If they balance that $ (they almost always do within reason), they pass the $ back and forth and take their fee. This is why books really don’t ever lose in the longterm. Anyway, Schwartzman has a tough one here when Muller is on offense. Muller is a good server, and has very good composure on court. The problem for him is that this will take more work than any tennis match he has ever played. Diego is a guy who hits everything back, and constantly gives you very little to work with. I can clearly remember times where Diego was facing a dangerous offense and wasn’t at his sharpest, and he won those contests anyway. Schwartzman in 4. Rublev Monteiro : If Yannick Hanfmann seemed ineffective, it’s only because of his opponent. Hanfmann is a great talent, and will be on tour for a while. Monteiro continued his great run against Martin, and now it’s just kinda over. He won’t struggle or fall apart in this match, but Rublev is just kinda at another level now. Rublev in 3. Lopez Sonego : Lopez with a nice draw and a nice win. He’s always a threat to serve out a set and he has enough skill to earn errors, but here he plays Sonego who just got through Querrey in fine form. This is one where I’d think Lopez had a better chance in the first round but after seeing Sonego do well from the jump, he has to be a pretty good favorite here. Still a serving battle, so this could take a while. Sonego in 4-5. Ruud Paul : Casper Ruud probably earned the retirement from Thompson, as he really was sharp in this match. He was sharp last week too, and it makes his match with Tommy Paul good quality to watch, but hard to predict. Paul won their only previous meeting, but Ruud has gotten worlds better since then. Paul has the serving game and offense to trade sets with most guys on hardcourt, and Ruud plays a bit generic at times which will allow Paul’s backhand down the line to create some damage, but I don’t see a way for Paul to win this match without putting on the kind of performance that will propel him well into the 4th round. Ruud in 4-5. O’Connell Albot : These two won in similar fashion. Struff ran O’Connell all over the court, but the ball kept coming back. O’Connell got onto the tour by grinding out wins on the challenger circuit, and he hugs the baseline and reflects power better than a lot of guys on tour. He is a brilliant pusher, even though those words don’t sound like they belong together. Struff played fine and returned well, he just missed every last shot of every important rally. Similarly, Albot outlasted RBA. The announcers discussed RBA trying to shorten the points, but he really has never done that in his career, and his backhand was actually awful in this one, as well as his movement. Add in that Radu Albot is an amazing human being and served extremely well, and you have a feelgood outcome. I loved the way Albot played against RBA, but I don’t think he’ll win points as easily against O’Connell. I’m not sure really how he’ll win points at all, and I could say the same for O’Connell. In a match between two very fast and very consistent players, the winner is usually whoever has a bit more stamina. I oddly suspect it’s O’Connell. Forgive me, O’Connell in 4. Harris Popyrin : What a good job by Harris in the first round of weathering the storm. Torpegaard was everywhere and was crushing the ball. Nonstop pressure and Harris really looked to be in trouble, but he kept the ball in the court until Torpegaard’s level dropped and then it was smooth sailing. Harris has had good success in Australia and even though he’s played the crowd-favorite in Popyrin, he has a good chance here. Popyrin beat Goffin in an amazing comeback. The crowd was loud and genuine, and Goffin just kinda got tired. He’s had some difficult outings since he had Covid, and there’s a good chance that his stamina/training are just not back to normal yet. The crowd cheering for Popyrin (who saved multiple match points in the 4th) actually made him smile. He sat on his bench after breaks smiling and just really happy and amazed at the moment, and I shed a couple turtle tears into the lake watching. A great moment for him, and he really has all the tools to go far on tour. The tough thing for him is deciding when to let the offense go. He has a tendency to play safe and them miss going for a big acceleration of pace. I’d like to see him go guns blazing from the start honestly, as his weapons are dangerous and his defense is subpar. The serve is great, and his match with Harris should be a bit of a shootout. Where I think Harris has the edge is in fitness. Goffin would have won the match if his level hadn’t dropped, and it actually started to just become Goffin spewing errors. I think Popyrin could be a bigtime player, but I’m not sure if he’ll outlast Harris who just outlasted a very similar and more consistent offensive player. Harris in 4-5. McDonald Coric : McDonald struggled early, as Cecchinato does not just disappear simply because he’s on hardcourt, but he does disappear when it’s time for the second round, and Mackie gets some much-needed puntos. Coric was in a war against Pella, but one that he never surrendered. Pella served for the set a few times, but got broken each time. I expect a similar outcome here, but in fewer sets. McDonald can hang in rallies and this match will have a lot of them, but Coric is a bit too consistent and Mackie still makes errors when he plays offense. Coric in 3 Krajinovic Andujar : Thunder booms.A jaguar awakens somewhere in the South Pole.“It is time,” says an old tree to a quiet forest.A monkey throws a rock into a still lake.“ANDUJAR!” it booms.The monkey throws another rock.“ANDUJAR!” it booms.A man appears, or is it more than a man.He quietly walks up and pats the monkey on the head.“It is time,” he whispers. Just hours later that half man half mirage would step onto the court against Halys. What was it time for? Well, Pablo Andujar’s one hardcourt win that he gets each year. A very good performance, and a testament again to how difficult claycourters are once they get into a rally. Krajinovic and Haase played a complete highlight reel of a match, and I expect this one to be similar. Some may criticize Kraj for struggling with Haase, but Robin plays a top-tier level of offense and he’s a similar skillful outlier to Jeremy Chardy. The level that Kraj played is a bit better than Andujar, so even though Filip is famous for big letdowns, I think he wins here. Krajinovic in 4. Carballes-Baena Medvedev : Good win for RCB round one. Now he can enjoy Australia. Medvedev was hitting winners off Pospisil’s serve. The guy is ridiculous and amazing to watch Medvedev in 3. Tsitsipas Kokkinakis : I expected Kokkinakis to win the first set and then struggle. He did the first part but failed at the second. Kwon is really struggling to win matches on tour, and Kokkinakis serves too well to let him break your serve. I expect this to be close for a while, but Tsitsipas beating Simon in such quick fashion means he’s not really making errors. Tsitsipas in 4. Alcaraz Ymer : Alcaraz benefitted greatly from Van De ZandSchulp having a very poor serving day. He just couldn’t land first serves, and Alcaraz teed off on the second serve offerings. Up next is a resplendent Mikael Ymer, who hung in there against Hurkacz until the errors came. This is a good test for Alcaraz because Ymer doesn’t get tired, hits a very solid ball, and is faster than really most guys on tour. Offense vs defense really, but here I don’t expect Alcaraz to struggle. He had some tough losses on clay to guys with top level defense like Coria, but on hardcourt it’s really tough to outplay a guy who’s so competent in the rallies. This is a similar letdown spot to last week though where Alcaraz beat Goffin (we’re now seeing that wasn’t such a major accomplishment given David’s struggles) and then lost quickly to Monteiro on a windy day. Very slight lean towards Alcaraz here but I wouldn’t really back either of these guys as it’s a brand new matchup, and both are at new peaks in their career. Alcaraz in 4. Khachanov Berankis : Khachanov continued his good play from last week, although he dropped a set to the big hitting Vukic. Berankis had the easiest draw of the event really, as Nagal never wins off clay. Khachanov is in a tiny bit of danger here as Berankis doesn’t give anything away, but the serve and the power are a big edge to the Russian. Khachanov in 4. Machac Berretini : Great win for Machac even though Vilella Martinez had to retire. He brought pace and consistency from start to finish and that’s what’s necessary on tour. Berretini looked like he’d lose the first, but he seems to have a bit of the oomph that was missing from his play at the end of last year, and Anderson really looked in bad trouble after losing the first. Machac can acquit himself nicely here, and he has a similar game to Giron who gave Berretini trouble (he may even be better in time), but Berretini in form is just too hard to break. Berretini in 3. Fognini Caruso : Maybe PCB’s loss to Fognini last week doesn’t look so bad, after watching him cruise through Herbert. This brings up a somehow first time matchup against Caruso, who’d been carrying Italian tennis in a lot of the events on tour. There isn’t much ability to predict Fognini matches, and honestly it is a puzzle whether he’ll compete or not on a given day. Even in a match where things can go well, he can get disrespected by a butterfly and tank. He seems lately to have been distracted by arguing with hawkeye, and attempting to challenge calls even though the system is automated. Caruso is supremely skillful, and has been competing hard on tour for a while. I don’t see him going away here, and I think if he’s able to get an early lead that Fognini will throw his hands up and spray errors wildly. If Fognini is able to hang within 1 set, I think he competes. Still, I give the nod to the guy who’s been putting in the hard yards on tour. Caruso in 5. De Minaur Cuevas : Alex De Minaur is just reliable at beating guys he should. He outworked Tennys Sandgren, and now has a very winnable match against a resurgent Cuevas. It’s good for Cuevas to get wins, and his athleticism was on full display as he frustrated Seppi into errors while standing 10 feet behind the baseline. I think that although Cuevas is able to compete at a high level sometimes, De Minaur is too disciplined for this to get out of hand. He’s willing to work the point, and he’s good at closing to net which will cause trouble for Pablo’s positioning. Norrie Safiullin : Cam Norrie and Evans had the war we wanted them to, and Norrie came out on top which must drive Evans crazy. Safiullin beat Ivashka pretty easily, and he’ll have a good shot here. This is the classic Norrie matchup where his defense and work ethic are up against an offensive talent who shouldn’t be able to beat him but might. I’m excited to see what happens, but Safiullin doesn’t have this kind of win in his bag yet. Oddsmakers set this at -290 +230 though, so given that Norrie is a way larger market, they’re not exactly writing off Roman’s chances with fresh legs. Norrie in 4 is the most likely outcome. Nadal Mmoh : Nadal in 3. He was great yesterday and Mmoh won a heartfelt battle but he’s not there yet.
How to Survive Camping - I brought home some new "pets"
I run a private campground. Winter is - obviously - our slow season and I have to say that it’s nice to not have people around. Seasonal budgeting is a little tricky, but once you get the hang of it you can reasonably predict how much you need to set aside throughout the year. After that you just sit back and enjoy the winter snow, maybe catch up on your Netflix queue, waste time on Reddit, or battle off hell-spawned thorn bushes littered all over the place by an ancient evil from Ireland. You know, just normal campground manager things. Anyway, if you’re totally new here, you should really start at the beginning and if you’re totally lost, this might help. I heard back from the university student that was working on the book left behind by my mother. They got through it a little faster than expected, mostly because they were fascinated by what they found inside. I can’t say I’m surprised. I mean, all of you read these posts, so I’m sure a journal left behind by my ancestor would be just as interesting. The journal has clearly been read a bit, the student said. Not just when it was written, but by more recent generations as well. They asked about where I found it and I explained it was stored in the attic by my mother. “Well, it was in pretty good shape until someone spilled something on it. We think it was grape juice.” So that put into context that early childhood memory where mom freaked out when I spilled grape juice all over the kitchen table. Anyway, they were able to separate the pages and take photos of the surviving text. For such a disastrous spill, the writing remained legible, albeit blurred and faded. I forwarded the photos they sent me on to my brother. The book remains with the university as it’s probably safer there than at my house. I don’t need it, so long as we have a transcription of the text in our possession. Then the student asked if I’d be willing to come in and talk about my family’s folklore. The book was full of superstitions and traditions, they said, and they were certain that there’d be some professors interested in the verbal history to go with it. It was unusual to find such a detailed account written out like this. “My family never really talked about the family folklore,” I lied. “My parents died when I was in college and I wasn’t interested before then.” The student expressed disappointment, thanked me for the book, and that finished our call. I’m waiting to hear from my brother if there’s anything that might help with our current situation. In the meantime… I couldn’t keep avoiding Beau forever. I mentally prepared myself for the confrontation as best as I could. My arguments were ready. The harvesters were unreliable help. They used me as bait and tried to stuff me into a raincoat. If I went to them, they might interpret my current vulnerability as a sign that it was time to recruit again. Perhaps they might even welcome the opportunity to claim the campground for themselves. I don’t know what their motives are. Besides, even if their intentions were honest or if Beau agreed to stand by and keep them from doing anything shady, the remedy was still dangerous. I was human, after all, and liable to simply die from shock if they cut me open to pull the thorns out. It is in my lungs now. I can feel them when I take a deep breath. Okay, yes, other people have survived more traumatic surgeries with them, but I’ll take any excuse I can get. The lady with extra eyes had tried to kill me as well, but there was at least an established pattern that I could trust. She’d befriend our family and remain a helping influence for generations, until some catalyst put her at odds with us. Then we’d kill her, she’d be reborn, and it’d happen all over again. This is what I believe is happening, judging by the bones buried under the tree in her yard. If we were at the beginning of that cycle, then the spiders were far more trustworthy than the harvesters. I went to Beau as he stood waiting in the yard that morning. His expression was unreadable, but that was hardly anything new. I took a deep breath and launched straight into it. “The fairy said I should go to the harvesters,” I said. “I’m not going to. They said I have time still and I’m going to try to find a different solution.” I held my breath, pensively waiting for his response. He merely raised a single eyebrow, the sunlight glinting off the row of hoops decorating it. “Do as you will,” he finally said dismissively. “Wait, you’re not going to argue?” I was astounded. “That is not my nature. I do not coerce or use deceit. You are mistaking me for a human again, I believe.” I muttered an apology. I was. Beau is a rather simple creature in how he handles his interactions with people. He offers a drink. If the individual does not accept, he kills them. The choice, as always, remains with the person, and the consequences are theirs to bear as well. It seemed Beau was thinking much the same thing, for he abruptly turned and started to walk away. Clearly he was no longer interested in teaching me how to better use my knife today. I would have to bear my consequences alone. “Make your mistakes, campground manager,” he said as he left. “I trust your will to live will eventually overcome your fear.” Which is a pretty ominous thing to say, so I admit I wasn’t terribly excited to go searching for the spiders after that. However, I am also very stubborn. I get that from my mother and my father. I’m sure that surprises no one. Beau’s warning chilled my enthusiasm, but it also made me a bit angry. This was my body the harvesters would be cutting into. A little consideration would be appreciated. I know that these inhuman things are cruel, but sometimes I just get a little tired of it. The lady with extra eyes, at least, had her moments when she was kind. I went off into the woods in a foul mood. I went on foot because I didn’t want the noise of the four-wheeler’s engine to scare off the spiders. My staff have been observing them since the lady’s death and the consensus is that they mostly act like normal spiders. Mostly. I thought I’d start with finding some thorns left behind by the fomorian. It’s been quiet lately. Perhaps the fairy and the fomorian are avoiding each other, waiting to see what the other one does instead of being the first to strike. The fomorian seems to be content to let the seeds he already littered about keep spreading. Most of the patches I’ve ripped out are growing back. A few didn’t and I can only assume the spiders are to thank for that. Perhaps they webbed the roots I left behind so that they couldn’t grow. I picked a thorn patch that was near the edge of the old woods. I didn’t want to venture in any further than I had to. For one thing, it’s been stupid cold down there. I don’t know if it’s because it sits in a depression or if I’m just noticing it more because I’m on foot, but this winter is shaping up to be intolerably cold. Even the locals are starting to complain. But more importantly, I didn’t want to run into the fomorian or his steed. It bothers me that I encountered the fomorian without the dapple-gray stallion. This means that the stallion is going off on its own occasionally. Since it apparently still has a desire to stomp in my skull and eat my flesh, I’m a little uneasy about potentially running into it without its master. And I don’t want to run into the fomorian because I’m in no mood to hear him gloat about how I’m going to die. I settled down onto the ground near the thorn bush. The snow melted and soaked into my jeans, which I quickly regretted, but I didn’t anticipate being out here very long. Just enough to talk to the spiders. “Hey,” I said softly. “It’s me. Kate.” I peered intently into the bush, straining to see a sign of movement. It would be a bit silly to have a conversation if there weren’t any spiders inside. Of course, you could also argue that it was silly to have a conversation with spiders at all. But this is old land. These are not ordinary spiders. “I don’t know if the lady reborn hates me,” I continued. “I think I would, if I were her. That assumes she’s been reborn already, that is. I’m assuming that big spider is her. I hope it is.” I was rambling. I took a deep breath and tried to rein in my uncertainty. This would either work or it wouldn’t and if it didn’t, the only thing I had to lose was a little bit of my time. “Well, if she doesn’t hate me and is willing to aid my family again… I could use her help. I think I’ve got a shot at helping the land and saving the trees, but I need a bit more time. I need to find a remedy for the thorns, but I can’t do that if I’m dead. And I think… I think I might be dying.” The morning before I left, I coughed blood into the sink. There were soggy bits in it, black pieces like tiny strips of bark. “So if you could just relay all that to her, I’d really appreciate it. I’ll come back to the deep woods tomorrow. See if I can find her house.” Nothing. No sound, no movement from the bush. My spirits sank. I’m not sure what I was expecting, but I’d gotten my hopes up that there would be… something. Anything to keep me from having to resort to the harvesters. I stood up, my joints stiff from the cold. There was frost on the outer layer of my jeans. I brushed it away absently, already thinking ahead to the fireplace back home and maybe a mug of hot chocolate. Then something grabbed my ankle. I don’t think there’s any way to train yourself out of being startled. It’s ingrained so deeply into the human instincts that there’s no reasonable way to be rid of it. What can be trained is how we react to unexpected stimuli. A lot of people freeze. I know which of my staff members freeze when startled because I have someone sneak up on them during their first week on the job to see how they react. If they freeze, then they get placed somewhere a little safer. It’s not hazing if it has a purpose, right? My parents made sure that I would not freeze. As the icy grip of something wrapped around my ankle, I reacted on pure instinct. I jerked my foot out of its grasp and jumped, putting distance between myself and whatever had touched me. I glanced down before I landed and saw a hand protruding from the snow, pallid and shriveled, stretching dirty fingers out to claw at the soil in an effort to drag the rest of the arm free. When I landed, I made sure to drive my heel down onto the hand. I heard the satisfying snap of bone. Then I ran. I did not look back. The frost. Rule #17. While it can get cold at night, you should not see frost forming inside your tent. If you are woken by the cold and see frost, call the camp emergency number. Stay calm and stay in your tent. We will come get you. It was all around me. This cold I’ve been complaining about? It masked the approach of the frost. I could think of no other explanation for how it had come up on me so abruptly. I ran. The only defense against the frost is to get away from it. I slipped on the icy road and painfully made my way up the steepest hill leading up out of the deep woods. My eyes stung and I felt frost forming on the edges of my lips. How deep in was I? How far had it spread? All around me, hands erupted out of the snow, flailing for purchase, trying to snatch at my legs as I ran past them, a macabre garden sparkling with frost like the morning dew. I didn’t think I would make it back to the house. Already, I felt like I was slowing down. The cold burned into my lungs and I wheezed for air. I couldn’t sustain this pace. My body simply wasn’t capable of sprinting for such a long distance. Worse, it didn’t seem to be making much difference. Fingers broke out of the snow around me like flowers blooming in early spring and my ears were filled with the popping of ice-coated joints that stretched and strained, trying to drag themselves up out of the frozen earth. They wouldn’t stop coming. I reached the top of the hill and veered off the road. There was a chance to survive this, one that was at least better than trying to outrun it. My pace slowed considerably once I hit the snow that hadn’t been partially cleared by our trucks. I stumbled through it, ripping my ankles away from the hands that grasped at the hem of my jeans. I felt like I was clawing for whatever scrap of forward momentum I could gain, fighting the very air itself as it burned into my nose and cheeks. Before me loomed a mound of debris. With one last burst of effort, I ran the last few yards and then collapsed, chest heaving, onto the side of the thing in the dark. The cold continued to press in around me. The air itself sparkled with ice. I borrowed my body deeper into the mound of leaves and sticks, desperately seeking the warmth, the safety, of a creature far more powerful than I. More powerful, hopefully, than the frost that tested the distance between us, crackling as it formed a thick layer of ice on top of the snow. “C’mon,” I hissed through chattering teeth. “Do you really want to mess with the thing in the dark?” It slowed. Then, mere feet away from where I huddled, it stopped. The hands that had broken through the snow went still and then, slowly, slipped back under and into the earth, leaving behind small mounds of disturbed snow as the only remnant of their presence. The cold, too, began to subside. I remained where I was, shivering violently, wondering when it would be safe to get up and leave. I soon became aware of something sharp stabbing into my side. In my desperation to find safety I didn’t notice at first. I shifted, lifting myself out of the debris and away from whatever was jabbing me through my jacket. I turned to look, as it hadn’t felt like a stick. It was far sharper. Like a needle. It was a thorn. My head swam with dread, like I was as light as a feather. There was a thorn inside the body of the thing in the dark. “I’m sorry,” I said frantically. “I’ll put it all back. But I need to know.” I pulled away sticks and leaves from the side of the mound. I dug a hole into the thing in the dark until enough had fallen away to pool around my knees that I could see clearly what was inside it. Vines. Black, twisting vines, their long thorns webbed with spider silk. As I knelt there, staring in horror, a myriad of spiders crept out of the darkness and stared at me with glittering eyes. Slowly, carefully, I put the branches back. I packed them back down. Then I stood and backed away. “I’ll take care of this,” I whispered. “I’m sorry. I’ll take care of this for you.” The thing in the dark is less active in the winter. I think it hibernates. I can only hope that was the reason for its silence. After a while it felt like the air was warmer and my shivering abated somewhat. The frost had hopefully moved on. I left the safety of the thing in the dark’s presence and returned home. I brought some firewood in with me, once again thinking about that fireplace and some hot chocolate. It wasn’t until I took my jacket off that I realized that my back was covered in spiders. As usual, I reacted with violence to being startled by something so horrific. I screamed and threw the jacket away from me. It hit the wall and the spiders scattered in all directions like a dandelion in the wind, scurrying across the wall and vanishing into the crannies and crevices along the floor and ceiling. I remained still for a long time, heart pounding, and then I went into the kitchen and poured myself a strong drink. I didn’t go back to pick up the jacket until hours later. It took some effort. Every time I walked towards it I remembered the sight of all those spiders, clutching the fabric, immobile and how their black and brown bodies blended into the fabric. How it took a few seconds as my brain pondered why my jacket seemed fuzzy and then one moved a single leg and the realization came unraveling down. There were no spiders on or in my jacket when I finally picked it up and put it away. I’m not sure where they’re hiding, but they’re certainly in my house still. You see, I think they’re coming out at night. The first night after that happened, I woke at some point feeling like there was something stuck in my throat. I was only half awake though and the feeling quickly passed before I could start coughing, and I quickly drifted back off to sleep. I’m trying to pretend that this is just my overactive imagination. That there aren’t spiders crawling down into my lungs while I’m sleeping. This has been happening for a few days. In the morning my chest feels heavy. Like the muscles to breathe in and out aren’t responding quite as well as they should. The feeling passes around midday. I don’t know if I’m getting better. But I know this - it’s not getting worse. I’m a campground manager. I wish I could be surprised by what’s happened to the thing in the dark. Unfortunately, it makes a terrible sort of sense. The fomorians were conquerors. They were tyrants. They subjugated everything within their grasp, crushing the will to fight out of them or killing the ones that refused to submit. The fomorian’s war with the fairy is only a prelude for what is to come if it wins. It will conquer my land. It will destroy the creatures that refuse to bow to it and rule over the rest. It will do the same to the town, to the surrounding farmland, and on and on until it can stretch its reach no further. Perhaps the humans living here will take no notice. The inhuman world is separate from our own, for the most part. It is only in places like old land that we are thrown in directly alongside it. Or perhaps we’ll notice in the more subtle ways, in how crops fail more frequently and sickness seems to lie deep in our bones. In a weariness that cannot be abated and a sadness we wear like an old jacket. I wonder if there are other parts of this world that already suffer under a fomorian’s rule. The fomorian has poisoned the thing in the dark. It is a creature that is unlikely to submit, so he will destroy it. At least there’s the spiders. Small, insignificant creatures that the fomorian will easily overlook. They’re fighting as best as they can to slow the decay. And now they’re trying to save both of us. [x] Since you've all been asking about the journal. Read the full list of rules. Visit the campground's website.
I watch a horror movie every day, here are the best ones I watched in 2020
(2020) Invisible Man 9/10 This remake, simply put, is excellent. I’m a huge fan of Leigh Whannell and while I do think the story itself is fantastic, it’s his directing that blew me away. This movie is so fucking tense without showing anything for a huge majority of its runtime. When shit actually starts to go down, it’s the definition of thrilling. Elisabeth Moss killed her role. (2020) The Rental 8/10 The meat and bones of this movie is a character driven drama story. It’s tense and having so much knowledge right away as the viewer that the characters don’t have is frankly anxiety inducing, in a good way. I thought all four main performances were fantastic, especially Sheila Vand. There’s a moment in the film where everything is abruptly subverted in a grand horror fashion and depending on your tastes, that may be off-putting. To me, it was absolutely genius. Dave Franco directed the fuck out of this movie and eliminated all the comfort of campiness that great slashers usually hold. (2020) Relic 8/10 Robyn Nevin is fantastic here and all the supporting roles are great but not only does this woman make the movie, she is the movie. Her dialogue, her delivery and her body language, at least to me, are a huge chunk of the entire plot. I just found this movie to be gentle until it isn’t, which makes for the most tense moments. It’s a very claustrophobic film; I think it does justice to a very serious and frightening illness. (2020) Palm Springs 8/10 It doesn’t take long to catch on that, while this is a romantic comedy, it’s also a sci-fi horror film and a specific subset of sci-fi that makes me anxious. So in some regards, at least to genre placement, there’s my bias. The movie is seriously a treat though. It’s a new spin on an old formula and it’s genuinely funny, suspenseful and endearing. Even if you disagree that it shouldn’t be discussed in the horror circles, you won’t regret watching it. (2020) Shirley 7/10 It’s an incredibly interesting film for many reasons but mostly because it exists as a biopic, as well as a psychological horror film. Jackson is played Elisabeth Moss who is just wonderful. She really brought to life the internal struggle of Jackson. I’d suggest doing some research before diving into this because her profession during the time period was not glamorous or widely accepted, which gives context to, well, everything. (2020) Becky 8/10 Kevin James was fantastic. He’s a sadistic fuck in this movie. But he doesn’t deserve all the credit and the writers don’t either. I’m going to highlight Greta Zozula here. The most powerful moments in this entire film were purely cinematography based. Melanie Garros and Jenn McGouran deserve a shoutout as well. This was a cookie-cutter home invasion film at its core and these people, among others, made it one of my favorite home invasion films of the decade. Alissa Gee deserves recognition too for creating the most disgusting moment I’ve seen in a minute. (2019) Parasite 9/10 This film is most obviously on-the-nose but in the same breath, so incredibly impactful. I can’t even describe the seamless transition from black comedy to horror. It’s a heartbreaking view on classism and poverty while also just being a thrilling experience. Every single performance is remarkable and natural. I’m not even sure what else to say without spoiling it. This film isn’t just specific to Asian culture but very relevant to anyone feeling that they’re in a rut. (2019) Villains 8/10 The premise is sort of simple but the horror is in the details. i loved how everything played out and I thought all four main actors did an incredible job. Everything was super convincing which had me invested and tense. There’s a scene at the end, despite the movies dark, comedic aspects, that was really sweet and very climactic. (2019) Swallow 9/10 Haley Bennett delivers a heartbreaking performance with a powerful but melancholy ending. The narrative itself is twisted and sadistic. This film make me anxious, depressed and in the end, I’m not sure it offered much reprieve. I loved this film but I’d caution anyone going through mental trauma to venture cautiously into it. It doesn’t promote anything negative but the subject matter can be difficult. (2019) Nimic 8/10 When I googled the name of this film it gave me the Romanian translation of “nothing” but also, “everything”. For a 10-minute short it offers so much. It felt like a powerfully dark statement about performance in general. (2019) The Head Hunter 9/10 This was one of the most creative, restrained yet somehow absolutely insane movies I’ve seen all year. I’m absolutely blown away. The exposition is limited and told so refreshingly through almost entirely visuals. It’s caused many viewers frustrations but for me, it was absolutely the best aspect. That’s saying a lot because visually, stylistically, it’s fucking remarkable. I’ve heard people say this movie is boring and to me, there’s not a dull moment throughout the entire film, not a single wasted shot. It’s thrilling, dark, gritty, campy at times and embodies this identity that’s both somehow fluid and refined. It feels like an arthouse film in its minimalism but avoids any pretentiousness you may associate with that sub-genre. Jordan Downey has done some intentionally so-bad-it’s good movies in the past and he clearly wanted to still reference those aspects through some of his shlocky, 50’s horror inspirations in here; especially Fiend Without a Face. That’s a creative decision that will turn a lot of people off but I just really appreciated it and it made the actual watching experience so incredibly fun. (2019) The Lighthouse 9.5/10 This film is among the few that I felt compelled to watch it again almost immediately. It’s so incredibly rich in every aspect that can make a movie successful. The visuals are jaw-dropping; almost every single frame of this film is photographic. The soundtrack is stripped down to just these haunting sounds of fog horns and piss buckets. The package everything is delivered in, from an artistic standpoint, is so memorable. The performances by Pattinson and Dafoe are both some of the best I’ve seen this entire year and really, the decade…possibly of all time. They deliver this brilliant script’s dialogue with such passion, humor and intensity. The story in this film is shrouded in mystery but the clues and tools needed to decipher it do exist and with a rewatch, finding them felt so rewarding. It’s the kind of movie that I want to make my friends watch, simply so I have someone to discuss it with. It’s one of the best horror films I’ve ever seen. (2019) I Trapped the Devil 7/10 This one is a bit of a slow-burn but I felt the tension from beginning to end so none of it felt like a blind investment. It had the potential to be another, cookie-cutter, pretentious statement but what I found it to be was simply a well-crafted horror film. (2019) Pet Sematary 7.5/10 The original film was entertaining to me but I felt it was also dated and a bit too unintentionally silly for my tastes. So going into this, I was hoping for a darker, more serious film and I’m happy to say, that’s what I got. (2019) Guns Akimbo 7.5/10 This is non-stop gory action, an absurd story and an insane performance by Radcliffe, who I’m such a big fan of at this point. The best part? It’s genuinely, laugh-out-loud funny, both through physical comedy and clever dialogue. (2019) Harpoon 7/10 I enjoyed this movie a lot and I mean “enjoyed” in every sense of the word. It was the kind of movie to stop making me think so critically about the acting and cinematography because I just find the stranded genre so fun. This movie really delivered in both dark humor and pure, unpredictability. (2019) Annabelle Comes Home 7/10 I know that Gary Dauberman has worked closely with the series so he definitely understands Wan’s Conjuring universe’s vibe. I mean that from both a pacing and cinematography standpoint. I loved that all the possessed artifacts come into play. (2019) Vivarium 8/10 This movie is fucking terrifying. The cast may even be too loaded because it’s the environment and Senan Jennings that makes everything so scary. The final 30 minutes of this film are a complete mindfuck and just left my jaw on the floor. (2019) It Chapter 2 9/10 It embodies the heartfelt, character driven story of King’s novel so incredibly well. Every single performance by the adult actors is fantastic and as much as people didn’t like the overuse of humor, it felt like a natural evolution to me. Things were destined to be less scary with the adult characters coming into contact with an evil they’ve faced before. The last 30-min to me were just so touching, sad and it was the culmination I was hoping for. (2019) Zombieland: Double Tap 7.5/10 It’s certainly a sequel as far as sequels go but I had a ton of fun with it and it was great to see this group back together. It’s a super cheesy film and I would expect some hate but the original is cheesy fun too, if even to a lesser extent. (2019) The Color Out of Space 7/10 The entire suspense if the film is how each individual character reacts to this unknown force but Cage’s is of course the most volatile. I love the body horror and I think the entire movie is pretty goddamn exciting in that aspect. It goes so far beyond what you’d expect. (2019) Joker 9.5/10 To have a Batman-universe film stand out this much among all the others is incredible. This film intentionally evokes almost every emotion until a raw, chilling finale. Gotham is unkempt, unstable and teetering. (2019) Come to Daddy 7.5/10 This movie is definitely a dark comedy but it’s incredibly interesting in that, among the dark humor, is a real horror movie and a very graphic one at that. (2019) The Lodge 9/10 The misdirects in this story are excellent and I was blown away about how well the cinematography was used to manipulate the viewer. It feels like it’s twist after twist but in reality, nothing changes and that’s the scariest aspect to the entire movie. (2019) Home with a View of the Monster 7/10 They do a fantastic job of storytelling, switching timelines and perspectives throughout the film. It’s a technique that’s been around longer than we’ve all been alive but one that’s not easily mastered. (2019) Ready or Not 7.5/10 It’s just a ton of fun and Samara Weaving is fantastic. There’s so much great meta-humor and the effects are top notch. I think this sub-genre of sadistic games being played has been done to death so it was a welcomed surprise to see a film do it in such a successful way. (2019) The Platform 9.5/10 One of my favorite things about horror is that you can trace history itself through the decades, with films reflecting the current political, social and economic state around the globe. First we has Us and then another incredible film Parasite, all with similar desperate themes of class instability. Then you have The Platform, which in its pure brutalism combines horror, religion and politics to make an incredibly powerful statement. (2019) I See You 9/10 This film consistently surprised, disappointed and impressed me throughout its runtime based purely on my own expectations. It frankly made a fool out of me. (2019) The Vast of Night 7/10 This movie is pretty low-budget but they really worked with what they had to create this warm, throwback aesthetic that just tickled my tiny little nuts. It’s a dialogue driven, on-the-nose Twilight Zone homage and I really enjoyed it. (2019) John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum 8/10 The choreography and production is mesmerizing. This might be a Hollywood mainstream action film but the kills are powerful and fucking brutal. (2018) Bloodline 7.5/10 Sean William Scott is a forever type casted actor but has managed to break free of that throughout the years and this is another great example of him doing just that. His performance is reserved but effective. (2018) Gwen 8.5/10 It’s an incredibly heartbreaking story that, while exists in the folk-horror genre, subverts any and all expectations. Eleanor Worthington-Cox and Maxine Peaks carry the entire film. (2018) Freaks 8/10 Emile Hirsch, Amanda Crew and Lexy Kolker were all great but it was Bruce Dern who blew me away. He’s such a powerful on-screen presence; just his delivery alone establishes a lot of the more horrifying elements to this film. (2018) Overlord 8/10 I thought it would be a traditional zombie movie and the circumstances would be the twist but it was its own thing. It’s kind of difficult to describe but I think action-war-horror would be the closest thing I could pin it too. Jovan Adepo was a great fucking lead. (2018) Monster Party 7.5/10 It’s awesome to experiment but this is a film that will appeal to almost everyone without feeling unoriginal or sold out. This is dark humor at its most enjoyable and the practical effects and gore are fucking awesome. (2018) Pledge 7.5/10 It’s a simple premise but so well executed. I loved the ending and pretty much 95% of the creative decisions. This isn’t a bloodbath of a horror film but it’s violent as hell. (2018) High Life 7/10 This film is a really uncomfortable watch from beginning to end. It’s filled with violent, psychosexual imagery, a disjointed narrative and cum. It ends and if you don’t outright hate it, it’s hard to explain why you like it because it’s such a rough watch. I fall in the latter category. (2018) Possum 8/10 I love the way the story unfolds in the end, just methodically bit-by-bit until a crushing reveal. I felt for this main character and his pain seemed so real. (2018) Wildling 8/10 Bel Powley and Liv Tyler both play very complimentary fantastic roles. There’s an extended portion of the film that’s almost uplifting and pleasantly strange, following their relationship with each other. I’m happy to say things turn sinister quickly and the last 30-minutes are a wild ride, to say the least. (2018) The Nightingale 9.5/10 Jennifer Kent decided to put in such a universally disgusting scene that had people walking out of screenings and almost justifiably so. It’s really difficult to watch in portions. It’s just fortunate she followed it up with a masterpiece. (2017) John Wick: Chapter 2 8/10 These assassins dance so carefully around innocent civilians that it almost comes off as a black comedy, in a great way. (2017) My Friend Dahmer 8/10 To me, especially with Ross Lynch’s performance, it was an equally endearing and chilling film. It humanized someone who I’ve always considered to be a literal monster, which is something I don’t know how to feel about. (2017) One Cut of the Dead 7/10 This movie is super creative and pretty fucking hilarious. It feels like a modern day Bowfinger. (2017) Marrowbone 7.5/10 The characters portrayed are vibrant and fully realized, whether it be through substance or lack-there-of. I obviously don’t actively try and predict movies like a gameshow but this film seemed to excel in misdirect. (2016) White Girl 8/10 It reminded me a lot of Larry Clark’s Kids but actually intelligently modernized to make a statement on these neighborhoods on the fringe of gentrification. (2016) The Lighthouse 7.5/10 Mark Lewis Jones and Michael Jibson play their respective roles as the lighthouse keepers really well. Towards the end of the film when the story demands even more of them both, they truly deliver. (2015) Room 9/10 Brie Larson is an incredible actress and plays this profoundly realistic character. There's moments where emotions do bubble over but most of the time, she does so much by doing so little. (2015) Jurassic World 7.5/10 Some people will be completely turned off by some of the more absurd and out-there plot elements but I have to say, despite it being cheesy on paper, a lot of the newer sci-fi concepts just happen to work. This is bound to forever be kind of divisive but I liked it. (2015) Tag 8.5/10 It’s like Tokyo Gore Police meets The Matrix. Sono makes a powerful statement on film media, gender oppression and interestingly enough, he doesn’t leave himself out of the lens of criticism. (2015) The Invitation 9/10 This movie’s horror aspect is incredibly telegraphed and manipulated with these creepy violin sounds. However, Karyn Kusama’s impeccably clean cinematography and direction use all of that to its benefit. (2014) John Wick 8/10 I saw this movie in theaters and let me just say, as a beagle owner, this may be my favorite revenge movie. Keanu Reeves is badass as shit and it was the first film in a long time to make me interested in action. (2014) Spring 8.5/10 It feels helpless and hopeful at the same time, Benson’s script is amazing. I’ve always said that films shot in idyllic landscapes are a blank canvas for horror. There’s so much beautiful contrast. (2014) The Treatment 7.5/10 This film is so unnerving, dark and depressing. The bones of it are structured like any crime thriller but the meat of it is pure depravity. (2014) Clown 8/10 This is body horror and one of the better ones out there; the slow, methodical transformation throughout this movie was so effective. (2014) The Incident 9/10 Bleak doesn’t even begin to describe this film. It’s pure nihilism, screamed loudly into the universe. (2014) The Guest 8.5/10 I fucking love the story, Dan Stevens is fantastic and the production was cleanly executed. It’s Adam Wingard’s best film so far. (2013) Blue Ruin 9/10 It’s a standout to me among revenge films. Macon Blair’s character isn’t some bloodthirsty ex-navy seal bent on revenge. He’s a completely broken man that’s overcome by heartbreak. (2013) Evil Dead 7.5/10 It’s one of the few examples where a remake of a classic, near perfect movie, actually works. (2013) Redemption 8/10 The film is shot so well, the editing and portrayal of the visuals all correspond to the ebb and flow of his characters physical and mental health. (2013) Under the Skin 9/10 The second death in this movie is one of the most remarkably unsettling scenes I’ve witnessed to date. (2011) The Strange Thing About the Johnsons 7/10 Astor flips child molestation on its head in a tense, sickeningly well-made film and I absolute hate it. Do not watch this movie, this will only detract from your overall happiness. (2011) Contagion 9/10 There’s some fantastic performances by Paltrow, Law, Fishburne and quite a few others. However, it’s the research and writing of this film, the frightening scientific accuracy, that makes it so effective. (2011) We Need to Talk About Kevin 9/10 This is probably one of the most sensitive subjects you can approach and I’m a huge fan of Lynne Ramsay. Ezra Miller has one of the most chillingly realistic performances of the decade. (2010) Inception 9.5/10 It’s Nolan’s masterpiece in my mind and that statement isn’t to be taken lightly, as everything he’s done has felt powerful. (2010) Buried 8/10 This is one of my favorite movies filmed all in one location. It’s tense, claustrophobic (obviously) and it feels genuinely helpless. (2010) Skeletons 7/10 It’s a strange little film but it’s charming, smart and a refreshing take on the exorcism sub-genre. (2009) The House of the Devil 8/10 My absolute favorite aspect of this film is the retro feel. It captured 70’s horror so incredibly well. Ti West is a talented filmmaker and this is one of my favorites by him. (2009) Cropsey 7/10 If there was one thing I really took away from this film, it would be how society and children in particular adapt to unsolved murders. (2009) The Loved Ones 7.5/10 It reminds of almost a modern day interpretation on The Texas Chainsaw Massacre, if the dinner scene was the entire film. (2008) Lake Mungo 9/10 This family is so incredibly natural, real and convincing. It’s not too over the top. The horror is hidden in every frame and simultaneously interwoven with heartbreak. Despite many previous and later films attempting to do what it does, I’ve never seen anything like it. (2007) An American Crime 7.5/10 Elliot Page is wonderful as Sylvia Likens, she just has this innocent nature to her that amplified the violent aspects of the film. I loved the editing of courtroom footage throughout the runtime, it was a constant reminder that what you’re watching actually happened, despite the theatrical nature of the film at times. (2007) Teeth 8/10 Teeth is actually such an incredibly hard movie to review critically. The film itself, as a whole, is so many things at once. It’s a comedy, an exploitation film, a revenge film and even sort of…a slasher? I have to give respect where respect is due. (2007) Death Sentence 7/10 This movie is so goddamn intense during the action sequences that it actual reminds me more of a Max Payne video game film adaptation. It’s so over-the-top but in a really entertaining way. (2007) Timecrimes 8.5/10 I loved this movie when I first saw it but upon re-watching it, I can’t help but stress its influence in the time-loop horror sub-genre. Sure films like Primer definitely helped pave the way but Timecrimes really manages to focus less on the science fiction and more on the horrifying consequences that come with time travel. (2007) Zodiac 9/10 It’s not the most violent film, it’s much more story driven but the moments of violence feel fucking powerful. The horror in this film isn’t about the serial killer, it’s really about obsession and Gyllenhaal absolutely nails his performance to bring that aspect home. (2006) Population 436 7/10 It didn’t aim to disgust or push boundaries; it’s just a fun, creepy story with a satisfying ending. (2006) Children of Men 9.5/10 It’s a bleak film, as bleak as they come from some perspectives but through the violence and despair is a powerful message of hope. Clive Owen’s character is as a broken as the world around him and one of my favorite character arcs of all time. (2005) Red Eye 7/10 The setup is sinister enough, being in the confines of a plane, to warrant it being discussed as a horror but it does devolve into an action thriller, not that I’m a genre-snob. Both Cillian Murphy and Rachel McAdams are fantastic and it’s a tight knit package. (2005) The Descent 9.5/10 It’s absolutely terrifying and top-to-bottom, one of the most effective horror movies ever made. After seeing over a thousand horror projects, this still remains one of the most intense, period. (2005) Constantine 8.5/10 Listen, I’ve obviously never even heard about this comic but let me just say, as a standalone movie, it’s fucking awesome. It’s basically Keanu Reeves battling his way through hell, murking demons and basically just being badass as shit. (2004) Saw 8/10 It’s one of the most creative projects of the 00’s and a project that launched Wan’s and Whannell’s career. I can safely say, the two of them haven’t had any major misses since. This movie is raw, disturbing and has a strong mystery-driven backbone that makes it iconic and endlessly re-watchable. I absolutely love it. (2004) Hellboy 7.5/10 Listen, I’m not a fucking nerd who is all-knowing about these comics and how well they translate to film but let me tell you, this movie fucking rocks. Ron Perlman kills this role and has so much personality. (2000) The Gift 8.5/10 Everyone here is wonderful. If I had to pick a standout though, it would be Giovanni Ribisi. His performance is so raw and emotive. The unstable nature of his character actually held up as the backbone to the mystery portion of this film, making it very much unpredictable. (1999) The Ninth Gate 9/10 It’s two hours of a giant satanic onion being peeled back layer by layer. It’s clear that when Polanski isn’t raping children, he’s creating filmmaking masterpieces. (1999) Deep Blue Sea 7.5/10 The science-fiction aspects may be super contrived to someone smarter than I am but the entire movie is so goddamn entertaining. I love all the characters and LL Cool J is particularly hilarious. (1998) Pi 7.5/10 Aronofsky is challenging religion with science and mathematics and it comes together in a really insane way. (1997) The Lost World: Jurassic Park 7/10 One scene in particular that stuck with me was the raptors in the tall grass, so aesthetically gorgeous and well-shot. It’s not a perfect movie but Goldblum and Moore are charismatic, it’s fucking action packed and the set pieces are diverse as shit. This isn’t some dialed in bullshit for a quick buck. (1997) Men in Black 9/10 Vincent D’Onofrio was fucking incredible. The entire villain that is Edgar is one of my favorites of all time. Everything from his speech, his loose-skin and awkwardly stiff gate just really sell it. (1996) The Craft 7.5/10 I love all the acting and characters but Fairuza Balk is probably my favorite. She’s just so eclectic and over-the-top. (1995) Tales from the Crypt: Demon Knight 7/10 This is such a fun movie and very much in the Tales from the Crypt vein. It’s campy but super violent too; the practical effects are fucking dope. It’s kind of like Evil Dead meets From Dusk till Dawn. Billy Zane is great in it and just brings a ton of personally to the film. I even really dug the raunchy, meta-horror opening. (1994) The Mask 7/10 Jim Carrey is his usual, hilarious, eclectic, over-the-goddamn-top self which softens the edges. There’s also a villain though and the same childish aspects don’t apply to him. As a kid, he was kind of scary actually. (1993) Jurassic Park 9.5/10 Even just typing that title blows my mind, this movie was made in 1993 and 27 years later, it still looks better than most modern monster movies. Jurassic Park is everything. This movie is the perfect blend of horror, action, adventure and sci-fi. (1991) Highway to Hell 7.5/10 This is an absolutely awesome 90’s horror movie. It has cameos from the entire Stiller family, even fucking Gilbert Gottfried. You also have Chad Lowe, who I truthfully didn’t even know existed. The story, set pieces and script are also all excellent. It’s darkly funny, well-paced and just a wild ride from start to finish. (1990) The Exorcist 3 8.5/10 This movie, for a film following such an iconic movie, being a third film in a series, is just bafflingly good. The original writer of the first film is returning and his script as well as directorial product both deliver. (1989) Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade 8/10 Indy is still Indy here, he’s fucking badass; his character and dialogue excel in this entry immensely. Not just dialogue but this film contains some of the best action choreography of the entire series, something that almost seems unfairly diminished through repetition. This movie is fucking awesome. (1988) Akira 7.5/10 This story is one that would feel very difficult to pull off through traditional media. The level of violence and body horror would possibly be even too much for Cronenberg’s plate. The ending of this film is mind-melting. (1988) Hellbound: Hellraiser 2 7.5/10 It’s violent, dark, disgusting and gory as fuck. It feels like a fever dream of hell. I loved the female character kind of forcing this disgusting erotic nature and it doubled down on the series soul which is the deadly allure of hell. (1988) Vampire’s Kiss 7/10 I love American Psycho and watching this, I can see where a ton of the performance inspiration in that film came from. Cage’s body language here is so insanely expressive and probably my favorite part of the entire project. Even if you’ve seen this one before, I highly suggest a re-watch, there’s something special about it. (1987) Fatal Attraction 7.5/10 Holy shit Glenn Close you goddamn crazy bitch, such a great performance. This movie is so incredibly and exponentially tense as it plays out. I loved Micheal Douglas and the entire film is just a reminder to never fucking cheat. (1987) The Believers 7/10 It gets a bit absurd at certain points but the cult aspects are awesome. I also think it’s the first horror movie I’ve seen specifically about Santeria. It’s not perfect but it stuck with me. (1987) The Lost Boys 8/10 Joel Schumacher’s The Lost Boys is so indicative of 80’s horror that it could very well be the face of the decade itself. The one-liners, the practical effects, aesthetics and story are all just wonderful. I’m not sure what else to say, this movie feels like a warm blanket to me. (1986) Little Shop of Horrors 8/10 Rick Moranis is as goofy as ever and good god…the practical effects are mind-blowing. You’re watching this giant plant movie and it just melts your brain thinking about how it was accomplished. (1986) Aliens 7/10 They exploited the action of the first film to capture a larger audience and lost what made Alien such an effective horror movie in the first place. I still like this movie because it contains my favorite heroin and monster but I’m sick of acting like the Alien series ever needed a director like Cameron. The ending is absolutely insane and bumps this up a few points for sure. (1984) The Terminator 8/10 This movie, simply put, is badass as shit. I’m aware the series kind of progresses into more action focused territory with the sequels but the original will always be a horror movie to me. The pacing, the unstoppable force that is Arnold, it’s all thrilling as shit. (1984) Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom 8/10 I think it’s a scary movie and a really dark turn in the trilogy. There are quirky aspects of it character wise that are kind of goofy but playful. Overall though, goddamn dude, these set pieces are amazing. (1984) Friday the 13th: The Final Chapter 7/10 Jason is super fucking powerful here; he moves quickly, intelligently and is able to drive the suspense of the movie. The success is greatly attributed to a solid performance by Crispin Glover but more importantly, Corey Feldman. I know Corey gets a lot of shit these days but he was an eclectic child actor. (1981) Raiders of the Lost Ark 9/10 Raiders of the Lost Arc is such an important movie to me. It helped open my eyes to darker content as a child, for better or worse. Everything that could ever be said about this film has been said, I’m just here to show my appreciation. (1980) City of the Living Dead 8/10 This movie is batshit insane in the best way possible. It’s ultra-gory, tons of crazy impressive practical effects which are very much Fulci in style. The narrative is a bit confusing but I think, or hope at least, intentionally so. (1980) The Ninth Configuration 7/10 The Ninth Configuration, while still representing William Peter Blatty’s struggle with religion, is tonally very different from The Exorcist. It’s a tedious, slow, detail oriented, character driven film that exceeds so well because of great writing. (1979) Nosferatu the Vampire 8/10 This film not only embodies and celebrates the original in terms of structure as well as substance, but in its restrained filmmaking methods; its ability to let shots live without intervention. It’s atmospheric, well-trimmed and just an all-around, exceptional film. Klaus Kinsi as Nosferatu is perfect. (1979) The Amityville Horror 7/10 I like James Brolin’s character, he’s odd and the axe sharpening is somewhat iconic. The film has both pacing issues as well as dialogue issues. With that being said though, the finale in sinister as fuck and really brings life, quite literally, to this evil house. (1979) Alien 9.5/10 My love for this single film transcends my love for the genre itself. Ridley Scott pulled off an absolute masterpiece and despite having watched it 25 times, I still cannot comprehend how a film of this quality was pulled off in 1979. It’s as close as perfection can be. (1978) Dawn of the Dead 8/10 Obviously at first glance you can tell this is a really lengthy film at over 2-hours long. However, the pacing is actually my favorite part. Romero really builds up to the climax slowly and lets you linger in his world for such a long time that it becomes fleshed out through pure exposure. (1978) Slave to the Cannibal God 7/10 I love the visuals, the story and Ursula Andress’ great big dirty milkers. It’s a wonderful, sleazy little exploitation film. The audio is also fantastic; I just love the way this film is edited all around. (1977) Shock Waves 7/10 Peter Cushing is awesome and I really liked Brooke Adams as well. Despite the cheesy premise though, this film is dark and moody. The tension and action really builds throughout the film and with the atmospheric nature, you kind of forget the ridiculousness of it all. (1975) Satanico Pandemonium 7/10 This is a pretty great, atmospheric, old-school exploitation film. It dives right into the temptations of sex and the devil among this convent. It gets pretty fucking dark, especially for the time period, specifically for Mexican horror. (1974) Vampyres 9/10 It’s dark, moody, sexy and offers one of the most unique vampire film experiences to date. It’s a film that makes Dennis’ idea from It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia about a full-penetration, Dolph Lundgren crime fighting movie seem almost plausible. (1973) Soylent Green 8/10 I loved all the concepts and details in this film. It took me a bit to get invested but once I was, real food was replaced with gold in my brain watching the plot play out. Charlton Heston did a great job of bringing life to this fictional universe as well through his dynamic and invested performance. (1973) The Crazies 7/10 There’s this great scene with this old lady knitting that I just adore. The innocent and violent clash in such an effective way. Obviously the horror aspects in that scene, as well as the virus itself are very fictional. The government response though, seems almost plausible, considering how they’re currently handling Covid-19. (1972) Horror Express 8/10 It’s genuinely creepy to this day and the storyline is ambitious as fuck. I’d be hard-pressed to say it’s not one of the better horror-sci-fis of the 70’s and that category includes some great fucking films. (1968) Even the Wind is Afraid 8/10 Coming over a decade before Suspiria, I can’t but feel, despite how unknown this film is, how influential it was to the genre. The story is great; it’s not super violent or anything and when they do show anything, it’s so well built up. It’s either a reveal at either peak tension or the opposite, when it’s least expected. (1967) Our Mother’s House 8/10 Jack Clayton, simply for directing The Innocents, is one of my favorite directors. He manages to capture super poignant emotional moments unlike no one else. We have some great modern directors working today that do the same but in terms of 1960's horror, it was harder to come by. (1967) Violated Angels 7/10 It’s actually based on an American case, about a man Richard Speck who broke into a hospital in 1966, raped and murdered eight nurses. The cinematography is startling cold. The dialogue is profound and helpless. This has to be up there with the most cynically sexualized piece of exploitation cinema. (1964) Lady in a Cage 7.5/10 It’s a really great little thriller with a solid performance by Olivia de Havilland and also James Caan. I think this movie captures such a helpless nature really well. (1964) The Last Man on Earth 7.5/10 I loved this movie. It’s actually one of my favorite Price films, which at least for me, is a bold statement. His films tend to have this warm, campy feel to them but this one actually felt pretty dark and desolate. It still contains those less-serious scenes and bits of dialogue but the writing and ideas themselves feel like a huge leap forward for the horror genre. (1960) The Virgin Spring 9/10 This is clearly the inspiration for The Last House on the Left and while I appreciate that film immensely, it didn’t evoke the same emotions this one did. The cinematography, per-Bergman, is impeccable. (1958) The Fly 7.5/10 The plot is actually non-linear and the first half is my favorite. Patricia Owens plays up the paranoia of her character incredibly well and I was actually really happy to see Price in a supporting role. (1956) Forbidden Planet 8/10 I personally think it’s one of the best sci-fi films of the decade. I know I’m going to get chirped for saying this but there’s even a scene towards the end that I believe could have inspired the tesseract in Interstellar. (1935) The Black Room 7/10 This is another Universal horror film starring Karloff, directed by Roy Neill. It presents itself with the usual, tight-knit flair you may have come to expect but it somehow has seen much less recognition than any of the major monster movies. I really liked this movie. (1932) The Old Dark House 8/10 This is also Karloff’s best look to date. I mean seriously, his performance is pretty muted and mostly expressed in body language but he has the same screen presence as Mickey Rourke.
Flatten the Curve. Part 84. Who are the What If Men. What is the People Machine? They Have Been Manipulating Society Using Simulations for a Long Time. The Worst is Yet to Come.
Previous Post Here Rock the vote! Power to the people! Get out and vote. Every vote counts. And the beat goes on. And on. And on. And on. And we buy it. Hook. Line. And sinker. Don't we? But, we live in a democracy! Yep. Sure do. We vote and then they do whatever they have planned. Seriously. Guantanamo Bay? Still there. Rich getting richer? Still happening. Gain of function testing on viruses? Still happening. Nafta? Who actually voted? No. One. Big bank bailouts? No choice. Get it? The illusion of choice is all it takes to pacify the masses. That's it. Our votes are the placebo effect. Do some of us notice? Yes. A few. For all the good that does us. So why are they able to get away with it? Surely at some point we would have noticed. Well we did notice, and they adjusted, and we're still living with the consequences. When did we notice? The Vietnam War. All the pictures of body bags and all the reports of the horrors of war were too much. We questioned why? The answer wasn't good enough. An economic system. Sure they tried to convince us back then that it was because human rights and liberty. Ok. Then we fast forward to present day and we trade with Vietnam. But nobody says, HEY! AREN'T THEY EVIL COMMUNISTS! No. One. Why? Because those in charge learned. All the images of war changed. Now we only see video game targets on screen. Now we only hear of all the amazing technology making war so advanced! War has become a Walt Disney production. Sanitized for the masses. How did they do it? How? Simple. They know in advance what stimulus will have the greatest effect on us, and what effect that stimulus will be. How? Simulations. And it's been going on for a very long time.
Simulations and Scenarios
In this scenario, we don’t want to marginalize the more extreme candidates, but make them more ‘Pied Piper’ candidates who actually represent the mainstream of the Republican Party,” read the memo. “Pied Piper candidates include, but aren’t limited to: • Ted Cruz. • Donald Trump. • Ben Carson. We need to be elevating the Pied Piper candidates so that they are leaders of the pack and tell the press to [take] them seriously."
Oh. Ok. So Crooked Hillary's team wanted to pump up Trump. Let me say that again, Pump Up Trump (sounds like a new sex toy, doesn't it? I'll get my people to call your people and lets make this happen. It'll be huge and people will love getting screwed by it!). And then it gets worse.
“Just like everybody, I thought this was a Bush against a Clinton, that’s all it was going to be,” said former Wisconsin Governor Jim Doyle. “When I saw the first set of debates, I would turn them on in an entertainment mode to see what Donald’s going to say today. It was funny." Source Here
Trump is funny. Ha. Ha. Ha. Let's get in some of that new Reality TV show called The Political Apprentice. Right. So is Trump a part of something nefarious? Or is he fighting the Deep State? But what if the answer is more complicated than that? What if all the peices are moved, including President's, on purpose, and with a plan? Crazy? Surely that's just plain nonsense and there's no way that could happen, right? Well, let me show you some additional things before the Internet of Things is in everything and we can't do anything.
They Pick, You Vote, Don't Matter. They Already Know.
What? Preposterous you say? Let's travel back to JFK and the People Machine.
Consider the strange trajectory of the Simulmatics Corporation, founded in New York City in 1959. (Simulmatics, a mash-up of ‘simulation’ and ‘automatic’, meant then what ‘artificial intelligence (AI)’ means now.) Its controversial work included simulating elections — just like that allegedly ‘pioneered’ by the now-defunct UK firm Cambridge Analytica on behalf of UK Brexit campaigners in 2015 and during Donald Trump’s US presidential election campaign in 2016. Journalists accused Trump’s fixers of using a “weaponized AI propaganda machine” capable of “nearly impenetrable voter manipulation”. New? Hardly. Simulmatics invented that in 1959. They called it the People Machine. As an American historian with an interest in politics, law and technology, I came across the story of the Simulmatics Corporation five years ago when researching an article about the polling industry. Polling was, and remains, in disarray. Now, it’s being supplanted by data science: why bother telephoning someone to ask her opinion when you can find out by tracking her online? Wondering where this began took me to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in Cambridge, to the unpublished papers of political scientist Ithiel de Sola Pool. Simulmatics, hired first by the US Democratic Party’s National Committee in 1959 and then by the John F. Kennedy campaign in 1960, pioneered the use of computer simulation, pattern detection and prediction in American political campaigning. The company gathered opinion-poll data from the archives of pollsters George Gallup and Elmo Roper to create a model of the US electorate.
Lasswell, whose research on communication purported to explain how ideas get into people’s heads: in short, who says what, in which channel, to whom, with what effect? During the Second World War, Lasswell studied the Nazis’ use of propaganda and psychological warfare. When those terms became unpalatable after the war ended, the field got a new name — mass-communications research. Same wine, new bottle. Like Silicon Valley itself, Simulmatics was an artefact of the cold war. It was an age obsessed with prediction, as historian Jenny Andersson showed in her brilliant 2018 book, The Future of the World. At MIT, Pool also proposed and headed Project ComCom (short for Communist Communications), funded by the US Department of Defense’s Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA). Its aim, in modern terms, was to try to detect Russian hacking — “to know how leaks, rumors, and intentional disclosures spread” as Pool described it.
Isn't that odd? Computers making predictions back in 1960. Computers analyzing human behavior in order to predict human behaviours and control the election outcome. And the scientist who it all started with came from MIT. And we wonder how all that Jeffrey Epstein money was spent.
The press called Simulmatics scientists the “What-If Men”, because their work — programming an IBM 704 — was based on endless what-if simulations. The IBM 704 was billed as the first mass-produced computer capable of doing complex mathematics. Today, this kind of work is much vaunted and lavishly funded. The 2018 Encyclopedia of Database Systems describes ‘what-if analysis’ as “a data-intensive simulation”. It refers to it as “a relatively recent discipline”. Not so. Buoyed by the buzz of Kennedy’s election, Simulmatics began an advertising blitz. Its 1961 initial stock offering set out how the company would turn prediction into profit — by gathering massive data, constructing mathematical models of behavioural processes, and using them to simulate “probable group behaviour”.
Do you really think these What-If Men are done and gone, set out to pasture like the cattle they manipulate? Really? Seriously. No. Obviously not. Or there wouldn't be such a fuss about Facebook and Cambridge Analytica. Same Crap. Different Flies. Only know there are more flies and the crap pile is bigger.
In 1963, on behalf of the Kennedy administration, Simulmatics simulated the entire economy of Venezuela, with an eye to halting the advance of socialism and communism. A larger project to undertake such work throughout Latin America, mostly designed by Pool and known as Project Camelot (Project Camelot, where have I heard that before?), became so controversial that the next president, Lyndon B. Johnson, dismantled it (sure he did). After 1965, Simulmatics conducted psychological research in Vietnam as part of a bigger project to use computers to predict revolutions. Much of this work built on earlier research by Lasswell and Pool, identifying and counting keywords, such as ‘nationalism’, in foreign-language newspapers that might indicate the likelihood of coups. Such topic-spotting is the precursor to Google Trends. Before his early death in 1984, Pool was also a key force behind the founding of the most direct descendant of Simulmatics, the MIT Media Lab. Pool’s work underlies the rules — or lack of them — that prevail on the Internet. Pool also founded the study of “social networks” (a term he coined); without it, there would be no Facebook. Pool’s experiences with student unrest at MIT — and especially with the protests against Simulmatics — informed his views on technological change and ethics. Look forward. Never look back. Source Here
Unrest and protest at MIT against Simulmatics. I guess you could call it Rage Against the Machine. Maybe we should ask Jeffery Epstein if that's a good name? He did invest a lot of money into the MIT Media lab, after all. Surely he has an opinion on it. Too bad he killed himself. Snicker. Look forward. Never back. That sounds suspiciously like a No Regrets policy, doesn't it? The ends justify the means. Let's hurry up and get those vaccines out. We can test for them along the way. It's all good.
Decades before Facebook and Google and Cambridge Analytica and every app on your phone, Simulmatics’ founders thought of it all: they had the idea that, if they could collect enough data about enough people and write enough good code, everything, one day, might be predicted—every human mind simulated and then directed by targeted messages as unerring as missiles. For its first mission, Simulmatics aimed to win the White House back for the Democratic Party. The University of California political theorist Eugene Burdick had worked for Greenfield in 1956, but decided not to join Simulmatics. Instead, he wrote a novel about it. In “The 480,” a political thriller published in 1964, a barely disguised “Simulations Enterprises” meddles with a U.S. Presidential election. “This may or may not result in evil,” Burdick warned. “Certainly it will result in the end of politics as Americans have known it.” That same year, in “Simulacron-3,” a science-fiction novel set in the year 2034, specialists in the field of “simulectronics” build a People Machine—“a total environment simulator”—only to discover that they themselves don’t exist and are, instead, merely the ethereal, Escherian inventions of yet another People Machine. After that, Simulmatics lived on in fiction and film, an anonymous avatar. In 1973, the German filmmaker Rainer Werner Fassbinder adapted “Simulacron-3” into “World on a Wire,” a forerunner of the 1999 film “The Matrix,” in which all of humanity lives in a simulation, trapped, deluded, and dehumanized.
The Matrix? A people machine. A Total Environment Simulator. Yikes. That sounds extremely far fetched, doesn't it. Trapped. Deluded. And. Drumroll please. Dehumanized.
In 1967 and 1968, at home, Simulmatics attempted to build a race-riot-prediction machine. In 1969, after antiwar demonstrators called Pool a war criminal, the People Machine crashed; in 1970, the company filed for bankruptcy. (Most of its records were destroyed; I stumbled across what remains, in Pool’s papers, at M.I.T.) Source Here
A race riot machine that apparently failed? And look what happened nine months ago? Coincidence? Foreign power information warfare? AI training wheels? Kinda scary, ain't it? And guess what? We're not done yet.
Ithiel de Sola Pool
So the Simulmatics Corporation was responsible for this;
Sept 17, 2020 • In 1960, media reports of dark forces behind John F Kennedy’s winning presidential campaign caused what Jill Lepore calls a “national hullabaloo”. America’s new leader, it was widely reported, had clinched the victory with the help of a “secret weapon”: a super computer that crunched troves of data to profile voters, allowing Kennedy to better target his political messaging before the polls opened.
And now let's look deeper at somebody who worked at the Simulmatics Corporation, Ithiel de Sola Pool.
For all of Simulmatics’ efforts at automating prediction, it is company executive Ithiel de Sola Pool, an MIT academic with a focus on social networks, who in Lepore’s telling proves to be the most accurate prediction machine — foreseeing the “data-mad and near-totalitarian twenty-first century” that he was instrumental in helping to create. “In the coming atomised society, the information the citizen gets will arise from his own specific concerns,” he wrote in 1968, predicting a communications revolution, “customised news feeds” and the dismantling of party politics for a “politics of self, every citizen a party of one”. Source Here
That's extremely prescient. Did he predict the future or make it? What came first, the chicken or the egg? Don't matter. Don't care. Not at all. Because the end result is the same, So what more can we find out about de Sola Pool? How about the fact that he studied Nazis and Communists? Heck, he studied totalitarianist speeches to figure out how words could carry power and influence. Over us. Overload us. But how unethical was Pool? Well, the guy who risked everything to bring us the Pentagon Papers (the papers that proved the Gulf of Tomkins incident was a false flag) thought this: Daniel Ellsberg would later say of Pool, “I thought of him as the most corrupt social scientist I had ever met, without question.” Not cool. Definitely. Not. Cool. Because if you naively believe that Pool’s research isn't being used by the Technocrats today, then more power to you. Believe what you want. Or should I say, believe what they want. And who are "they"? They are the Rockefeller's and Rothschilds, the Technocrats, the World Economic Forum, the Bilderberg Group, CIA, NSA, and the Council on Foreign Relations. Speaking of which.
At that point in his (Pool’s) career, he was a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, advising several countries around the world. Pool felt that the world was underestimating the importance of communications and technical change. Source Here
Oops. Pool was a member of the CFR advising several countries around the world. Ok. Next step.
2004 • The transformation of the United States into a power able and willing to take a leading role in world affairs was not achieved solely through policy changes in Washington, DC, let alone simply by changes in the structure of world power. This chapter examines the vital role of the CFR in transforming American public opinion from ‘isolationist’ to ‘globalist’ as an important aspect of America’s rise to globalism. In this regard, the Council focused its energies to undermine and marginalise isolationism while promoting its own internationalist views as the best means to achieve the American national interest. Source Here
So if a bunch of unelected officials are officially changing policy, why do you vote? Rock the vote? Don't make me laugh. More like Don't Rock the Boat. They started running simulations back in the sixties. Remember, Nixon was the odds on favorite to win. Kennedy was a long shot. And then, Kennedy was the President. Nixon probably wasn't happy. After all, he was part of the power structure. He went to Bohemian Grove. And then he had the rug pulled out from underneath him. And what did he end of calling Bohemian Grove attendees? A bunch of fags. Oops. Who pissed in his cornflakes? They run simulations. Then they have different scenarios that dictate policy. Then they use the CFR, the WEF, the Rockefeller Group, and other NGO'S to adapt and shape future policy decisions to steer society. Heck. They probably even use the Mickey Mouse Club at this point.
November 21, 1971 • Of the first 82 names on a list prepared to help President Kennedy staff his State Department, 63 were Council members. Kennedy once com plained, “I'd like to have some new faces here, but all I get is the same old names.” Source Here
So a "People Machine" helped get JFK "elected" and his State Department list was mostly comprised of Council members. It's starting to look more and more like our heads of state are manipulated just like us, doesn't it? Let's jump back into the Pool one more time.
In 1965, he wrote "The Kaiser, the Tsar, and the Computer," an essay about a computer-simulated international crisis. Later, his interest in quantitative analysis and communications would contribute to computer models to study human behavior.
Computer Models aren't Playboy Centerfolds
It doesn't matter who gets voted in. They may think they're in charge. They may go along. Or they may think they're making changes. But, I guarantee you the changes they make are the changes those behind the scenes want. Even if our leaders know it or not. No way! Thats crazy! Insane! Ok. Sure. But remember this, in a world of insanity, a sane man is always perceived as being insane. So let's dive into the DEEP END OF THE POOL and see what we can find.
October 2, 2019 • With AI, the models suddenly become more realistic. “One of the things that has changed is an acceptance that you really can model humans,” says F. LeRon Shults, director of the Center for Modeling Social Systems at the University of Agder in Norway. “Our agents are cognitively complex. They are simulated people with genders, ages and personalities. They can get married, have children, get divorced. They can get a job or get fired, they can join groups, they can die. They can have religious beliefs. They’re social in the way humans are. They interact with each other in social networks. They learn from each other, react to each other and to the environment as a whole.”
Hold on. Agent's are cognitively complex? That's scary, isn't it? And this is a very strange situation we find ourselves in, isn't it? Agents. Simulations. Viruses. Sentinels. Didn't they try and block out the sun? Ahem. Bill Gates. And I've read that originally the script didn't have humanity as batteries, but instead used humans as their RAM. In other words, we we're used for our brains ability to think. More on this in an upcoming post. Just think about it for now.
Final Thoughts
The what if men and the people machine. They model society and we see what they want us to see. Kind of like the model in the Matrix wearing the red dress. We're too busy looking for danger everywhere but where we should look. And that's a mistake. This is why we can't dismiss anything. We have to question everything. In the previous post I said that it was called the Sentinel World Simulation. I found the article. I made a mistake. It's called the Sentient World Simulation. Words matter. Always. But I still don't think my mistake alters what's going on. We are being steered by an unseen group. And this is why China + Russia + USA are heading towards a cliff. He who controls AI controls humanity. But who controls who? More soon.
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